Recent USGS assessments place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake in the greater Los Angeles region well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of roughly 100–300 years on key segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. Trader consensus at 91 percent for “No” aligns with this baseline, as the 18-month window to 2027 remains short compared with paleoseismic records. Although June 2026 research indicates the faults are at their highest stress levels in a millennium, triggering remains unpredictable without precursory signals such as accelerating foreshock sequences or strain-meter anomalies. Continuous USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center monitoring could revise odds if new data reveal rapid loading changes before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de magnitud 6.5+ en Los Ángeles antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de magnitud 6.5+ en Los Ángeles antes de 2027?
$12,435 Vol.
$12,435 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$12,435 Vol.
$12,435 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS assessments place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake in the greater Los Angeles region well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of roughly 100–300 years on key segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. Trader consensus at 91 percent for “No” aligns with this baseline, as the 18-month window to 2027 remains short compared with paleoseismic records. Although June 2026 research indicates the faults are at their highest stress levels in a millennium, triggering remains unpredictable without precursory signals such as accelerating foreshock sequences or strain-meter anomalies. Continuous USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center monitoring could revise odds if new data reveal rapid loading changes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volumen
$12,435Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS assessments place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake in the greater Los Angeles region well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of roughly 100–300 years on key segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. Trader consensus at 91 percent for “No” aligns with this baseline, as the 18-month window to 2027 remains short compared with paleoseismic records. Although June 2026 research indicates the faults are at their highest stress levels in a millennium, triggering remains unpredictable without precursory signals such as accelerating foreshock sequences or strain-meter anomalies. Continuous USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center monitoring could revise odds if new data reveal rapid loading changes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$12,435Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS assessments place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake in the greater Los Angeles region well below 10 percent, reflecting recurrence intervals of roughly 100–300 years on key segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. Trader consensus at 91 percent for “No” aligns with this baseline, as the 18-month window to 2027 remains short compared with paleoseismic records. Although June 2026 research indicates the faults are at their highest stress levels in a millennium, triggering remains unpredictable without precursory signals such as accelerating foreshock sequences or strain-meter anomalies. Continuous USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center monitoring could revise odds if new data reveal rapid loading changes before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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