**Forecast models and observational data position 78-79°F as the leading outcome for Miami’s overnight low on June 15, 2026.** Mid-June climatology in South Florida shows typical minimum temperatures clustering in the upper 70s, supported by warm Biscayne Bay sea-surface temperatures that limit radiational cooling under light onshore flow. Current National Weather Service and private-model guidance for the period consistently projects lows near 77–79°F, with the 78-79°F bin capturing the highest implied probability at 39.5% as traders weigh the narrow spread between guidance runs. A secondary 76-77°F outcome (24.5%) reflects the realistic possibility of slightly stronger cooling if a brief dry slot or lighter winds allows marginally more heat loss overnight. Higher bins (80-81°F at 13.5%) remain plausible under continued cloud cover or stronger southerly flow that retains heat, while sub-76°F readings are discounted given the absence of any cold-air advection or unusual atmospheric setup. With resolution occurring within hours, the market reflects tight consensus around historical norms and the latest model runs rather than any emerging anomaly.