El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere summer and beyond, according to NOAA and IRI updates, providing the main upward pressure on trader odds for July global temperature anomalies. This development follows ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year and aligns with multi-model consensus projecting Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.5 °C by late summer. Recent observational baselines, including 2025 annual averages near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 reference and January 2026 at 1.12 °C, inform the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges. Differentiation among bins hinges on the pace of El Niño-driven ocean heat release, atmospheric teleconnections, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability, with new seasonal model runs and July data releases likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the month’s close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJulio 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Julio 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,10–1,14ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
<1,10ºC 43%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
43%
1,10–1,14ºC
48%
1,15–1,19ºC
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
45%
1,25–1,29 ºC
41%
>1,29ºC
41%
1,10–1,14ºC 48%
1,20–1,24ºC 45%
<1,10ºC 43%
1,15–1,19ºC 43%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$83 Vol.
43%
1,10–1,14ºC
$63 Vol.
48%
1,15–1,19ºC
$47 Vol.
43%
1,20–1,24ºC
$45 Vol.
45%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$84 Vol.
41%
>1,29ºC
$54 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere summer and beyond, according to NOAA and IRI updates, providing the main upward pressure on trader odds for July global temperature anomalies. This development follows ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year and aligns with multi-model consensus projecting Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.5 °C by late summer. Recent observational baselines, including 2025 annual averages near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 reference and January 2026 at 1.12 °C, inform the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges. Differentiation among bins hinges on the pace of El Niño-driven ocean heat release, atmospheric teleconnections, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability, with new seasonal model runs and July data releases likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the month’s close.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$377Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere summer and beyond, according to NOAA and IRI updates, providing the main upward pressure on trader odds for July global temperature anomalies. This development follows ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year and aligns with multi-model consensus projecting Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.5 °C by late summer. Recent observational baselines, including 2025 annual averages near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 reference and January 2026 at 1.12 °C, inform the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges. Differentiation among bins hinges on the pace of El Niño-driven ocean heat release, atmospheric teleconnections, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability, with new seasonal model runs and July data releases likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the month’s close.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$377Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific by mid-June 2026 and are forecast to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere summer and beyond, according to NOAA and IRI updates, providing the main upward pressure on trader odds for July global temperature anomalies. This development follows ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year and aligns with multi-model consensus projecting Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +1.5 °C by late summer. Recent observational baselines, including 2025 annual averages near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 reference and January 2026 at 1.12 °C, inform the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C ranges. Differentiation among bins hinges on the pace of El Niño-driven ocean heat release, atmospheric teleconnections, and any short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or internal variability, with new seasonal model runs and July data releases likely to sharpen resolution ahead of the month’s close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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