Stalled US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program have driven trader consensus to a 60% implied probability against Tehran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, reflecting Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 20-year moratorium in favor of a five-year pause. April 2026 talks in Islamabad deadlocked on this core issue amid ceasefire efforts following military escalations, with President Trump claiming Iran accepted halting enrichment and surrendering its stockpile—claims unconfirmed by Tehran, which insists on its right to enrich for peaceful purposes under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains substantial at over 9,000 kg, underscoring non-compliance risks and low prospects for full cessation without sanctions relief breakthroughs before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$117,809 Vol.
$117,809 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$117,809 Vol.
$117,809 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Stalled US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program have driven trader consensus to a 60% implied probability against Tehran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, reflecting Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 20-year moratorium in favor of a five-year pause. April 2026 talks in Islamabad deadlocked on this core issue amid ceasefire efforts following military escalations, with President Trump claiming Iran accepted halting enrichment and surrendering its stockpile—claims unconfirmed by Tehran, which insists on its right to enrich for peaceful purposes under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains substantial at over 9,000 kg, underscoring non-compliance risks and low prospects for full cessation without sanctions relief breakthroughs before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volumen
$117,809Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Stalled US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program have driven trader consensus to a 60% implied probability against Tehran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, reflecting Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 20-year moratorium in favor of a five-year pause. April 2026 talks in Islamabad deadlocked on this core issue amid ceasefire efforts following military escalations, with President Trump claiming Iran accepted halting enrichment and surrendering its stockpile—claims unconfirmed by Tehran, which insists on its right to enrich for peaceful purposes under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains substantial at over 9,000 kg, underscoring non-compliance risks and low prospects for full cessation without sanctions relief breakthroughs before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$117,809Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled US-Iran negotiations over Iran's nuclear program have driven trader consensus to a 60% implied probability against Tehran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, reflecting Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 20-year moratorium in favor of a five-year pause. April 2026 talks in Islamabad deadlocked on this core issue amid ceasefire efforts following military escalations, with President Trump claiming Iran accepted halting enrichment and surrendering its stockpile—claims unconfirmed by Tehran, which insists on its right to enrich for peaceful purposes under IAEA monitoring. Recent IAEA reports confirm Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains substantial at over 9,000 kg, underscoring non-compliance risks and low prospects for full cessation without sanctions relief breakthroughs before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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