Iran has issued repeated threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) since 2025, including parliamentary bill preparations after U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites and following IAEA findings of noncompliance with safeguards. Officials have cited sanctions reimposition, attacks on facilities, and perceived treaty imbalances as justification, with discussions resurfacing into early 2026. No withdrawal legislation has passed, however, and Iran continues NPT participation alongside indirect nuclear talks with the United States. Traders price an 87.4% chance of no exit before 2027 because such a step would end IAEA verification obligations, intensify isolation, and risk further escalation, while historical patterns show threats serving leverage rather than immediate action amid ongoing diplomacy and reconstruction efforts at damaged sites.