Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles missed analyst consensus by about 7,600 units, with production of 408,386 creating a 50,000-unit inventory surplus amid softening global EV demand and competitive pressure from BYD in China. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with implied probabilities closely clustered around 400,000–475,000 for Q2, driven by strong March China wholesale of 85,670 units (up 46% month-over-month) and ongoing Cybertruck and Model Y production ramps at Giga Texas. Key swing factors include U.S. inventory clearance, discounting trends, and Europe sales recovery; Cybercab initial production adds long-term capacity but minimal Q2 impact. Q2 resolution nears end-June, with monthly China data as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado450k–475k 25.8%
400k–425k 18.4%
375k–400k 18%
425k–450k 16%
$37,617 Vol.
$37,617 Vol.
<300k
<1%
300k–325k
1%
325k–350k
2%
350k–375k
5%
375k–400k
18%
400k–425k
22%
425k–450k
16%
450k–475k
26%
475k+
16%
450k–475k 25.8%
400k–425k 18.4%
375k–400k 18%
425k–450k 16%
$37,617 Vol.
$37,617 Vol.
<300k
<1%
300k–325k
1%
325k–350k
2%
350k–375k
5%
375k–400k
18%
400k–425k
22%
425k–450k
16%
450k–475k
26%
475k+
16%
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles missed analyst consensus by about 7,600 units, with production of 408,386 creating a 50,000-unit inventory surplus amid softening global EV demand and competitive pressure from BYD in China. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this uncertainty, with implied probabilities closely clustered around 400,000–475,000 for Q2, driven by strong March China wholesale of 85,670 units (up 46% month-over-month) and ongoing Cybertruck and Model Y production ramps at Giga Texas. Key swing factors include U.S. inventory clearance, discounting trends, and Europe sales recovery; Cybercab initial production adds long-term capacity but minimal Q2 impact. Q2 resolution nears end-June, with monthly China data as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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