Trader sentiment for 2026 M7.0+ earthquake totals centers on the year's early pace of roughly six events through mid-June, set against the long-term USGS average of about 15–16 major quakes annually. With no 8.0+ events recorded and recent activity limited to isolated M7.5–7.8 shocks such as the Tonga and Philippines events, markets price the 11–13 and 14–16 bins equally at 30.5% each. Seismic variability arises from subduction-zone strain accumulation and aftershock sequences that can cluster or remain quiet; current model consensus and historical year-to-year swings of ±5–8 events sustain the tight spread, while upcoming global seismic bulletins will clarify whether activity accelerates toward or beyond the climatological mean.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
14–16 34%
11–13 31%
17–19 15%
8–10 7.8%
$1,317,616 Vol.
$1,317,616 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
2%
8–10
8%
11–13
31%
14–16
34%
17–19
15%
20+
4%
14–16 34%
11–13 31%
17–19 15%
8–10 7.8%
$1,317,616 Vol.
$1,317,616 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
$73,715 Vol.
2%
8–10
$132,059 Vol.
8%
11–13
$411,217 Vol.
31%
14–16
$185,817 Vol.
34%
17–19
$208,915 Vol.
15%
20+
$62,955 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader sentiment for 2026 M7.0+ earthquake totals centers on the year's early pace of roughly six events through mid-June, set against the long-term USGS average of about 15–16 major quakes annually. With no 8.0+ events recorded and recent activity limited to isolated M7.5–7.8 shocks such as the Tonga and Philippines events, markets price the 11–13 and 14–16 bins equally at 30.5% each. Seismic variability arises from subduction-zone strain accumulation and aftershock sequences that can cluster or remain quiet; current model consensus and historical year-to-year swings of ±5–8 events sustain the tight spread, while upcoming global seismic bulletins will clarify whether activity accelerates toward or beyond the climatological mean.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volumen
$1,317,616Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader sentiment for 2026 M7.0+ earthquake totals centers on the year's early pace of roughly six events through mid-June, set against the long-term USGS average of about 15–16 major quakes annually. With no 8.0+ events recorded and recent activity limited to isolated M7.5–7.8 shocks such as the Tonga and Philippines events, markets price the 11–13 and 14–16 bins equally at 30.5% each. Seismic variability arises from subduction-zone strain accumulation and aftershock sequences that can cluster or remain quiet; current model consensus and historical year-to-year swings of ±5–8 events sustain the tight spread, while upcoming global seismic bulletins will clarify whether activity accelerates toward or beyond the climatological mean.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,317,616Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment for 2026 M7.0+ earthquake totals centers on the year's early pace of roughly six events through mid-June, set against the long-term USGS average of about 15–16 major quakes annually. With no 8.0+ events recorded and recent activity limited to isolated M7.5–7.8 shocks such as the Tonga and Philippines events, markets price the 11–13 and 14–16 bins equally at 30.5% each. Seismic variability arises from subduction-zone strain accumulation and aftershock sequences that can cluster or remain quiet; current model consensus and historical year-to-year swings of ±5–8 events sustain the tight spread, while upcoming global seismic bulletins will clarify whether activity accelerates toward or beyond the climatological mean.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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