Limited human-to-human transmission of Andes virus, the only hantavirus strain capable of person-to-person spread, underpins the 96.1% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data confirm a May 2026 cruise ship cluster yielded just 8–10 laboratory-confirmed cases and 3 deaths, with transmission restricted to close, prolonged contact rather than efficient airborne or casual spread typical of pandemic pathogens. Rodent reservoirs drive most sporadic infections globally, producing roughly 100+ cases in Argentina over the past year—double prior levels but still localized—without evidence of sustained chains or viral evolution enabling broader outbreaks. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed epidemiological patterns and low global risk assessments, though mutation enabling efficient respiratory transmission or expanded rodent ranges from climate shifts could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end surveillance updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Pandemia de hantavirus en 2026?
¿Pandemia de hantavirus en 2026?
Sí
$15,334,835 Vol.
$15,334,835 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$15,334,835 Vol.
$15,334,835 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Limited human-to-human transmission of Andes virus, the only hantavirus strain capable of person-to-person spread, underpins the 96.1% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data confirm a May 2026 cruise ship cluster yielded just 8–10 laboratory-confirmed cases and 3 deaths, with transmission restricted to close, prolonged contact rather than efficient airborne or casual spread typical of pandemic pathogens. Rodent reservoirs drive most sporadic infections globally, producing roughly 100+ cases in Argentina over the past year—double prior levels but still localized—without evidence of sustained chains or viral evolution enabling broader outbreaks. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed epidemiological patterns and low global risk assessments, though mutation enabling efficient respiratory transmission or expanded rodent ranges from climate shifts could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volumen
$15,334,835Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Limited human-to-human transmission of Andes virus, the only hantavirus strain capable of person-to-person spread, underpins the 96.1% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data confirm a May 2026 cruise ship cluster yielded just 8–10 laboratory-confirmed cases and 3 deaths, with transmission restricted to close, prolonged contact rather than efficient airborne or casual spread typical of pandemic pathogens. Rodent reservoirs drive most sporadic infections globally, producing roughly 100+ cases in Argentina over the past year—double prior levels but still localized—without evidence of sustained chains or viral evolution enabling broader outbreaks. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed epidemiological patterns and low global risk assessments, though mutation enabling efficient respiratory transmission or expanded rodent ranges from climate shifts could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$15,334,914Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Limited human-to-human transmission of Andes virus, the only hantavirus strain capable of person-to-person spread, underpins the 96.1% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data confirm a May 2026 cruise ship cluster yielded just 8–10 laboratory-confirmed cases and 3 deaths, with transmission restricted to close, prolonged contact rather than efficient airborne or casual spread typical of pandemic pathogens. Rodent reservoirs drive most sporadic infections globally, producing roughly 100+ cases in Argentina over the past year—double prior levels but still localized—without evidence of sustained chains or viral evolution enabling broader outbreaks. Trader consensus reflects these confirmed epidemiological patterns and low global risk assessments, though mutation enabling efficient respiratory transmission or expanded rodent ranges from climate shifts could theoretically alter trajectories before year-end surveillance updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes