Traders assign a 97.6% probability that Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel will not enter US custody by June 30, reflecting the absence of any recent diplomatic, legal, or military developments indicating such an outcome. US actions have centered on sanctions, an energy blockade, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro for a 1996 incident, with no comparable steps against the sitting president. Díaz-Canel remains in Havana, publicly addressing bilateral tensions and rejecting external pressure to resign. The short timeframe to resolution further limits realistic pathways. Extreme scenarios such as an unanticipated military escalation or extraordinary rendition could theoretically alter the situation, though current patterns of engagement show no signs of these materializing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$18,168 Vol.
$18,168 Vol.
30 jun 2026
$18,168 Vol.
$18,168 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.6% probability that Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel will not enter US custody by June 30, reflecting the absence of any recent diplomatic, legal, or military developments indicating such an outcome. US actions have centered on sanctions, an energy blockade, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro for a 1996 incident, with no comparable steps against the sitting president. Díaz-Canel remains in Havana, publicly addressing bilateral tensions and rejecting external pressure to resign. The short timeframe to resolution further limits realistic pathways. Extreme scenarios such as an unanticipated military escalation or extraordinary rendition could theoretically alter the situation, though current patterns of engagement show no signs of these materializing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Volumen
$18,168Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.6% probability that Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel will not enter US custody by June 30, reflecting the absence of any recent diplomatic, legal, or military developments indicating such an outcome. US actions have centered on sanctions, an energy blockade, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro for a 1996 incident, with no comparable steps against the sitting president. Díaz-Canel remains in Havana, publicly addressing bilateral tensions and rejecting external pressure to resign. The short timeframe to resolution further limits realistic pathways. Extreme scenarios such as an unanticipated military escalation or extraordinary rendition could theoretically alter the situation, though current patterns of engagement show no signs of these materializing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Miguel Díaz-Canel will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Miguel Díaz-Canel’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Miguel Díaz-Canel submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Miguel Díaz-Canel, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$18,168Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.6% probability that Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel will not enter US custody by June 30, reflecting the absence of any recent diplomatic, legal, or military developments indicating such an outcome. US actions have centered on sanctions, an energy blockade, and the May 2026 indictment of former leader Raúl Castro for a 1996 incident, with no comparable steps against the sitting president. Díaz-Canel remains in Havana, publicly addressing bilateral tensions and rejecting external pressure to resign. The short timeframe to resolution further limits realistic pathways. Extreme scenarios such as an unanticipated military escalation or extraordinary rendition could theoretically alter the situation, though current patterns of engagement show no signs of these materializing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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