Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents or national security revelations in the final days before resolution. Earlier in 2026, multiple countries acted—Saudi Arabia expelled an Iranian military attaché on March 22, Lebanon declared Iran's ambassador persona non grata on March 24, Sweden suspended visas for embassy staff on March 25, the US disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN envoy from December (reported April 3), and Argentina ousted a top diplomat shortly after—reflecting heightened tensions amid US-Iran frictions and regional proxy conflicts. No subsequent escalations, plots, or official announcements from State Department, EU foreign ministries, or allies have emerged in the past three weeks, solidifying high confidence. Late-breaking disclosures of covert activities could theoretically prompt a last-hour declaration, though procedural timelines make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?
¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?
Sí
$14,906 Vol.
$14,906 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
$14,906 Vol.
$14,906 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents or national security revelations in the final days before resolution. Earlier in 2026, multiple countries acted—Saudi Arabia expelled an Iranian military attaché on March 22, Lebanon declared Iran's ambassador persona non grata on March 24, Sweden suspended visas for embassy staff on March 25, the US disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN envoy from December (reported April 3), and Argentina ousted a top diplomat shortly after—reflecting heightened tensions amid US-Iran frictions and regional proxy conflicts. No subsequent escalations, plots, or official announcements from State Department, EU foreign ministries, or allies have emerged in the past three weeks, solidifying high confidence. Late-breaking disclosures of covert activities could theoretically prompt a last-hour declaration, though procedural timelines make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$14,906Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents or national security revelations in the final days before resolution. Earlier in 2026, multiple countries acted—Saudi Arabia expelled an Iranian military attaché on March 22, Lebanon declared Iran's ambassador persona non grata on March 24, Sweden suspended visas for embassy staff on March 25, the US disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN envoy from December (reported April 3), and Argentina ousted a top diplomat shortly after—reflecting heightened tensions amid US-Iran frictions and regional proxy conflicts. No subsequent escalations, plots, or official announcements from State Department, EU foreign ministries, or allies have emerged in the past three weeks, solidifying high confidence. Late-breaking disclosures of covert activities could theoretically prompt a last-hour declaration, though procedural timelines make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$14,906Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents or national security revelations in the final days before resolution. Earlier in 2026, multiple countries acted—Saudi Arabia expelled an Iranian military attaché on March 22, Lebanon declared Iran's ambassador persona non grata on March 24, Sweden suspended visas for embassy staff on March 25, the US disclosed expelling Iran's deputy UN envoy from December (reported April 3), and Argentina ousted a top diplomat shortly after—reflecting heightened tensions amid US-Iran frictions and regional proxy conflicts. No subsequent escalations, plots, or official announcements from State Department, EU foreign ministries, or allies have emerged in the past three weeks, solidifying high confidence. Late-breaking disclosures of covert activities could theoretically prompt a last-hour declaration, though procedural timelines make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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