In the wake of five opposition MPs crossing the floor to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since late 2025—including Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—the government secured a slim two-seat House of Commons majority after winning three byelections on April 14. This stability has quelled immediate needs for more defections, yet reports of Liberal recruitment efforts persist, with Conservative MPs citing approaches, hot mic admissions, and bribe allegations as recently as April 30. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pushes recall petitions for crossers amid low public support (one-in-four approve), while parliamentary committee votes aided by defectors highlight ongoing tensions. No crossings in the past three weeks; upcoming sessions may test party loyalty in this fragile majority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 jun 2026
May 15
47%
May 31
53%
$287 Vol.
May 15
$27 Vol.
47%
May 31
$82 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.In the wake of five opposition MPs crossing the floor to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since late 2025—including Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—the government secured a slim two-seat House of Commons majority after winning three byelections on April 14. This stability has quelled immediate needs for more defections, yet reports of Liberal recruitment efforts persist, with Conservative MPs citing approaches, hot mic admissions, and bribe allegations as recently as April 30. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pushes recall petitions for crossers amid low public support (one-in-four approve), while parliamentary committee votes aided by defectors highlight ongoing tensions. No crossings in the past three weeks; upcoming sessions may test party loyalty in this fragile majority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$287Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.In the wake of five opposition MPs crossing the floor to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since late 2025—including Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—the government secured a slim two-seat House of Commons majority after winning three byelections on April 14. This stability has quelled immediate needs for more defections, yet reports of Liberal recruitment efforts persist, with Conservative MPs citing approaches, hot mic admissions, and bribe allegations as recently as April 30. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pushes recall petitions for crossers amid low public support (one-in-four approve), while parliamentary committee votes aided by defectors highlight ongoing tensions. No crossings in the past three weeks; upcoming sessions may test party loyalty in this fragile majority.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$287Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the wake of five opposition MPs crossing the floor to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals since late 2025—including Conservative Marilyn Gladu on April 8, 2026—the government secured a slim two-seat House of Commons majority after winning three byelections on April 14. This stability has quelled immediate needs for more defections, yet reports of Liberal recruitment efforts persist, with Conservative MPs citing approaches, hot mic admissions, and bribe allegations as recently as April 30. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pushes recall petitions for crossers amid low public support (one-in-four approve), while parliamentary committee votes aided by defectors highlight ongoing tensions. No crossings in the past three weeks; upcoming sessions may test party loyalty in this fragile majority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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