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Sports·2026 FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Nation to Reach Final

icon for World Cup: Nation to Reach Final
Sports·2026 FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Nation to Reach Final

$135,977 Vol.

Jul 20, 2026
Polymarket

$135,977 Vol.

Polymarket

Spain

$7,387 Vol.

30%

France

$14,006 Vol.

28%

England

$5,958 Vol.

23%

Argentina

$2,770 Vol.

20%

Brazil

$6,482 Vol.

19%

Portugal

$11,730 Vol.

18%

Germany

$2,283 Vol.

13%

Netherlands

$3,012 Vol.

11%

Belgium

$6,289 Vol.

9%

Norway

$12,615 Vol.

7%

Japan

$3,812 Vol.

5%

Morocco

$9,092 Vol.

5%

Turkiye

$3,670 Vol.

5%

Colombia

$3,167 Vol.

5%

Mexico

$16,639 Vol.

4%

Switzerland

$2,844 Vol.

4%

Uruguay

$2,403 Vol.

4%

USA

$4,810 Vol.

3%

Croatia

$2,178 Vol.

3%

Senegal

$922 Vol.

2%

Ecuador

$6,599 Vol.

2%

Egypt

$1,340 Vol.

2%

Austria

$137 Vol.

2%

Sweden

$849 Vol.

2%

Paraguay

$486 Vol.

2%

Ivory Coast

$381 Vol.

2%

South Korea

$183 Vol.

2%

Canada

$217 Vol.

1%

South Africa

$78 Vol.

1%

Algeria

$177 Vol.

1%

Czechia

$258 Vol.

1%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

$186 Vol.

1%

Iran

$763 Vol.

1%

Ghana

$157 Vol.

1%

Scotland

$53 Vol.

1%

Uzbekistan

$113 Vol.

1%

Panama

$69 Vol.

1%

Saudi Arabia

$226 Vol.

1%

Tunisia

$186 Vol.

1%

DR Congo

$116 Vol.

1%

Australia

$93 Vol.

1%

Jordan

$293 Vol.

1%

Iraq

$76 Vol.

1%

Haiti

$60 Vol.

1%

Cape Verde

$124 Vol.

1%

Qatar

$291 Vol.

1%

New Zealand

$86 Vol.

1%

Curacao

$406 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the consensus favorite to reach the final, bolstered by strong recent form, depth across the squad, and favorable bracket positioning that keeps them on the opposite side from Argentina until potentially the championship match. France and England remain close behind in implied probability, with both nations benefiting from experienced rosters and solid qualifying campaigns, while Brazil and Portugal offer realistic paths through strong attacking options and historical knockout success. The expanded 48-team field and three-host format introduce added travel and rest variables across the June 11 to July 19 schedule, with the final set for MetLife Stadium. Official injury updates, particularly around key players like Spain's Lamine Yamal, and group-stage results will shape early odds movement in this multi-outcome market.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$135,977
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the consensus favorite to reach the final, bolstered by strong recent form, depth across the squad, and favorable bracket positioning that keeps them on the opposite side from Argentina until potentially the championship match. France and England remain close behind in implied probability, with both nations benefiting from experienced rosters and solid qualifying campaigns, while Brazil and Portugal offer realistic paths through strong attacking options and historical knockout success. The expanded 48-team field and three-host format introduce added travel and rest variables across the June 11 to July 19 schedule, with the final set for MetLife Stadium. Official injury updates, particularly around key players like Spain's Lamine Yamal, and group-stage results will shape early odds movement in this multi-outcome market.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$135,977
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Nation to Reach Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 48+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 30%, followed by "France" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "World Cup: Nation to Reach Final" has generated $136K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "World Cup: Nation to Reach Final," browse the 48+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: Nation to Reach Final" is "Spain" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Nation to Reach Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.