With many teams clustered near 50% implied probability and a broad group of contenders between 20-36%, the Fair Play Award market reflects the inherent uncertainty of the award, which hinges on yellow and red card discipline across the group stage and knockout rounds rather than pre-tournament form. No team has yet accumulated a meaningful edge because matches have not begun, leaving historical card averages, squad temperament, and referee assignments as equalizing factors for all participants. The tight spread among Spain, Germany, England, the Netherlands, and Mexico underscores how minor differences in playing style or past tournament behavior have not yet produced separation in trader consensus, while lower-priced sides retain realistic paths through clean group performances or favorable officiating trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGermany 39%
Japan 26.5%
Spain 23%
Mexico 20.6%
$12,849 Vol.
$12,849 Vol.
Germany
23%
Japan
17%
Spain
37%
Mexico
21%
England
23%
Argentina
14%
France
8%
Norway
8%
Brazil
8%
Portugal
21%
Belgium
6%
Haiti
4%
Sweden
4%
DR Congo
4%
Paraguay
4%
Iraq
4%
Türkiye
4%
Ghana
3%
Netherlands
22%
Australia
3%
New Zealand
2%
Czechia
11%
Colombia
19%
Algeria
8%
Canada
15%
Croatia
20%
Ecuador
7%
Iran
17%
Ivory Coast
9%
Jordan
19%
Morocco
7%
Austria
19%
Scotland
9%
Switzerland
18%
Panama
1%
Egypt
1%
Saudi Arabia
1%
Uruguay
14%
Uzbekistan
1%
Curaçao
<1%
Senegal
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
17%
South Africa
12%
South Korea
14%
Tunisia
14%
United States
15%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
7%
Germany 39%
Japan 26.5%
Spain 23%
Mexico 20.6%
$12,849 Vol.
$12,849 Vol.
Germany
23%
Japan
17%
Spain
37%
Mexico
21%
England
23%
Argentina
14%
France
8%
Norway
8%
Brazil
8%
Portugal
21%
Belgium
6%
Haiti
4%
Sweden
4%
DR Congo
4%
Paraguay
4%
Iraq
4%
Türkiye
4%
Ghana
3%
Netherlands
22%
Australia
3%
New Zealand
2%
Czechia
11%
Colombia
19%
Algeria
8%
Canada
15%
Croatia
20%
Ecuador
7%
Iran
17%
Ivory Coast
9%
Jordan
19%
Morocco
7%
Austria
19%
Scotland
9%
Switzerland
18%
Panama
1%
Egypt
1%
Saudi Arabia
1%
Uruguay
14%
Uzbekistan
1%
Curaçao
<1%
Senegal
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
17%
South Africa
12%
South Korea
14%
Tunisia
14%
United States
15%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
7%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the nation whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With many teams clustered near 50% implied probability and a broad group of contenders between 20-36%, the Fair Play Award market reflects the inherent uncertainty of the award, which hinges on yellow and red card discipline across the group stage and knockout rounds rather than pre-tournament form. No team has yet accumulated a meaningful edge because matches have not begun, leaving historical card averages, squad temperament, and referee assignments as equalizing factors for all participants. The tight spread among Spain, Germany, England, the Netherlands, and Mexico underscores how minor differences in playing style or past tournament behavior have not yet produced separation in trader consensus, while lower-priced sides retain realistic paths through clean group performances or favorable officiating trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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