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Sports·Soccer

World Cup: Golden Ball Winner

icon for World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
Sports·Soccer

World Cup: Golden Ball Winner

Lamine Yamal 13%

Kylian Mbappé 13%

Gavi 12%

Michael Olise 11%

Polymarket
NEW

Lamine Yamal 13%

Kylian Mbappé 13%

Gavi 12%

Michael Olise 11%

Polymarket
NEW

Lamine Yamal

$286 Vol.

13%

Kylian Mbappé

$2,871 Vol.

13%

Gavi

$68 Vol.

12%

Michael Olise

$0 Vol.

11%

Harry Kane

$423 Vol.

10%

Ousmane Dembélé

$123 Vol.

8%

Lionel Messi

$40 Vol.

8%

Jude Bellingham

$0 Vol.

7%

Bruno Fernandes

$0 Vol.

7%

Vinícius Jr.

$0 Vol.

7%

Cristiano Ronaldo

$500 Vol.

6%

Rayan Cherki

$0 Vol.

6%

Erling Haaland

$0 Vol.

6%

Pedri

$0 Vol.

6%

Declan Rice

$0 Vol.

5%

Rodri

$0 Vol.

5%

Vitinha

$63 Vol.

5%

Florian Wirtz

$217 Vol.

4%

Bukayo Saka

$143 Vol.

4%

Neymar

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 World Cup Golden Ball market reflects a wide-open field where no single player holds a decisive edge, with top implied probabilities clustered between 6% and 13% for contenders such as Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé, Gavi, and Michael Olise. Recent club form, youth breakout seasons, and international pedigree drive this tightness, as Yamal’s pace and creativity, Mbappé’s athleticism in a loaded French attack, and established names like Harry Kane and Lionel Messi balance the field. Tournament variables including squad depth, fixture congestion, and potential breakout performances further compress probabilities, leaving the race sensitive to early knockout-stage results and individual consistency across the expanded 48-team format.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,733
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 World Cup Golden Ball market reflects a wide-open field where no single player holds a decisive edge, with top implied probabilities clustered between 6% and 13% for contenders such as Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé, Gavi, and Michael Olise. Recent club form, youth breakout seasons, and international pedigree drive this tightness, as Yamal’s pace and creativity, Mbappé’s athleticism in a loaded French attack, and established names like Harry Kane and Lionel Messi balance the field. Tournament variables including squad depth, fixture congestion, and potential breakout performances further compress probabilities, leaving the race sensitive to early knockout-stage results and individual consistency across the expanded 48-team format.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,733
End Date
Jul 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Golden Ball Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lamine Yamal" at 13%, followed by "Kylian Mbappé" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"World Cup: Golden Ball Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "World Cup: Golden Ball Winner," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: Golden Ball Winner" is "Lamine Yamal" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kylian Mbappé" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Golden Ball Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.