This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified assaults toward Lyman in Donetsk oblast as part of their spring offensive launched in early April 2026, reporting incremental advances and control over portions of the town amid heavy fighting, though independent assessments like ISW indicate minimal net territorial gains and recent Ukrainian counterstrikes disrupting logistics. Ukrainian troops have reclaimed flanks such as Yampil, conducted deep drone operations against Russian rear positions, and claimed victories in key Lyman engagements as of April 28, maintaining defensive lines despite pressure. No verified full capture of Lyman by Russia has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting a protracted battle influenced by manpower rotations, equipment attrition, and potential reinforcements ahead of summer campaigning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have intensified assaults toward Lyman in Donetsk oblast as part of their spring offensive launched in early April 2026, reporting incremental advances and control over portions of the town amid heavy fighting, though independent assessments like ISW indicate minimal net territorial gains and recent Ukrainian counterstrikes disrupting logistics. Ukrainian troops have reclaimed flanks such as Yampil, conducted deep drone operations against Russian rear positions, and claimed victories in key Lyman engagements as of April 28, maintaining defensive lines despite pressure. No verified full capture of Lyman by Russia has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting a protracted battle influenced by manpower rotations, equipment attrition, and potential reinforcements ahead of summer campaigning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
May 31 dips to 7%2%
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
Apr 27 2026
ISW and Ukrainian sources confirm Russian forces have not captured Lyman railroad station; Russian advances stalled
April 30 dips to 0%2%
(Confirmation of no Russian capture finalized market collapse to zero.)
Apr 23 2026
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks confirmed near Lyman forests, suggesting ongoing contest for control
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian troops conducting counterattacks near Lyman, indicating active fighting and uncertainty about final control.
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
May 31 dips to 9%2%
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
Apr 22 2026
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
Apr 21 2026
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Apr 21 2026
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
May 31 dips to 12%1%
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
Apr 21 2026
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claims advances near Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian control
April 30 dips to 2%1%
(Discrepancy between Russian claims and independent assessments led to skepticism and
Apr 18 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks push Russian forces from positions southeast of Lyman;
June 30 dips to 22%1%
Russian advances slow in Slovyansk direction, indicating stalled Russian offensive
Apr 16 2026
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
May 31 drops to 13%12%
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
Apr 11 2026
Russian forces continue artillery and drone strikes in Lyman direction despite ceasefire, indicating ongoing contestation
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russian artillery and drone strikes persisted in the Lyman area after a ceasefire began, showing continued conflict and uncertainty over control of the city.
Apr 10 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in central Yampil southeast of Lyman;
June 30 jumps to 23%6%
Russian forces attack near Lyman and Slovyansk but fail to secure significant gains
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
Apr 2 2026
Continued Ukrainian control and Russian infiltration missions fail to change frontline near Lyman
April 30 drops to 9%5%
(Reports confirmed no Russian capture, pushing
Apr 1 2026
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
June 30 plunges to 19%19%
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
Mar 28 2026
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
June 30 plunges to 38%18%
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
Mar 28 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in eastern Lyman; Russian forces fail to gain foothold
April 30 dips to 14%3%
(Ukrainian advances and Russian failures to secure Lyman further reduced market confidence.)
Mar 23 2026
ISW reports Russian forces unlikely to seize Fortress Belt including Lyman in 2026; Russian advances slow and costly
April 30 drops to 20%8%
(Expert assessments dampened expectations of Russian capture, lowering
Mar 10 2026
Ukrainian forces clear previously contested parts of Lyman, denying Russian control
April 30 drops to 28%10%
(Reports of Ukrainian forces regaining control in Lyman caused a sharp drop in market
Mar 10 2026
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting
June 30 rises to 70%2%
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting Russian progress
Mar 5 2026
Russian mechanized assault toward Lyman reported, but Ukrainian forces inflict heavy losses and prevent capture
April 30 jumps to 52%12%
(Russian offensive efforts near Lyman raised hopes of capture, pushing
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian forces report territorial gains but Russian strikes on railway infrastructure intensify
December 31 rises to 88%1%
Despite Ukrainian territorial gains in February, Russian forces increased attacks on railway infrastructure near Lyman, maintaining pressure on the strategic transport hub.
Feb 28 2026
Russian forces maintain offensive operations around Lyman with attacks on multiple nearby settlements
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, continuing efforts to encircle and capture the city, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked elsewhere.
Feb 25 2026
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman, capturing nearby villages and expanding penetration zones
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian troops seized four villages in the Lyman area and expanded operations in forests south of Lyman, consolidating positions and increasing chances of capturing the city.
Feb 24 2026
Russian forces in the Lyman direction experience communication issues impacting assault coordination;
June 30 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian forces strike Russian manpower near Torske east of Lyman, slowing Russian advances
Feb 20 2026
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman amid intensified attacks on railway infrastructure
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and infiltrated its outskirts, while shifting strikes to Ukrainian water and railway infrastructure, signaling increased pressure on the strategic railway hub.
Feb 20 2026
Ukrainian forces launch counterattacks near Lyman, repelling Russian advances and maintaining control over key positions
April 30 surges to 49%17%
(Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian difficulties in advancing near Lyman increased confidence in a possible Russian capture, temporarily raising
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified assaults toward Lyman in Donetsk oblast as part of their spring offensive launched in early April 2026, reporting incremental advances and control over portions of the town amid heavy fighting, though independent assessments like ISW indicate minimal net territorial gains and recent Ukrainian counterstrikes disrupting logistics. Ukrainian troops have reclaimed flanks such as Yampil, conducted deep drone operations against Russian rear positions, and claimed victories in key Lyman engagements as of April 28, maintaining defensive lines despite pressure. No verified full capture of Lyman by Russia has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting a protracted battle influenced by manpower rotations, equipment attrition, and potential reinforcements ahead of summer campaigning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces have intensified assaults toward Lyman in Donetsk oblast as part of their spring offensive launched in early April 2026, reporting incremental advances and control over portions of the town amid heavy fighting, though independent assessments like ISW indicate minimal net territorial gains and recent Ukrainian counterstrikes disrupting logistics. Ukrainian troops have reclaimed flanks such as Yampil, conducted deep drone operations against Russian rear positions, and claimed victories in key Lyman engagements as of April 28, maintaining defensive lines despite pressure. No verified full capture of Lyman by Russia has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting a protracted battle influenced by manpower rotations, equipment attrition, and potential reinforcements ahead of summer campaigning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
May 31 dips to 7%2%
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
Apr 27 2026
ISW and Ukrainian sources confirm Russian forces have not captured Lyman railroad station; Russian advances stalled
April 30 dips to 0%2%
(Confirmation of no Russian capture finalized market collapse to zero.)
Apr 23 2026
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks confirmed near Lyman forests, suggesting ongoing contest for control
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian troops conducting counterattacks near Lyman, indicating active fighting and uncertainty about final control.
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
May 31 dips to 9%2%
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
Apr 22 2026
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
Apr 21 2026
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Apr 21 2026
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
May 31 dips to 12%1%
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
Apr 21 2026
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claims advances near Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian control
April 30 dips to 2%1%
(Discrepancy between Russian claims and independent assessments led to skepticism and
Apr 18 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks push Russian forces from positions southeast of Lyman;
June 30 dips to 22%1%
Russian advances slow in Slovyansk direction, indicating stalled Russian offensive
Apr 16 2026
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
May 31 drops to 13%12%
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
Apr 11 2026
Russian forces continue artillery and drone strikes in Lyman direction despite ceasefire, indicating ongoing contestation
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russian artillery and drone strikes persisted in the Lyman area after a ceasefire began, showing continued conflict and uncertainty over control of the city.
Apr 10 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in central Yampil southeast of Lyman;
June 30 jumps to 23%6%
Russian forces attack near Lyman and Slovyansk but fail to secure significant gains
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
Apr 2 2026
Continued Ukrainian control and Russian infiltration missions fail to change frontline near Lyman
April 30 drops to 9%5%
(Reports confirmed no Russian capture, pushing
Apr 1 2026
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
June 30 plunges to 19%19%
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
Mar 28 2026
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
June 30 plunges to 38%18%
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
Mar 28 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in eastern Lyman; Russian forces fail to gain foothold
April 30 dips to 14%3%
(Ukrainian advances and Russian failures to secure Lyman further reduced market confidence.)
Mar 23 2026
ISW reports Russian forces unlikely to seize Fortress Belt including Lyman in 2026; Russian advances slow and costly
April 30 drops to 20%8%
(Expert assessments dampened expectations of Russian capture, lowering
Mar 10 2026
Ukrainian forces clear previously contested parts of Lyman, denying Russian control
April 30 drops to 28%10%
(Reports of Ukrainian forces regaining control in Lyman caused a sharp drop in market
Mar 10 2026
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting
June 30 rises to 70%2%
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting Russian progress
Mar 5 2026
Russian mechanized assault toward Lyman reported, but Ukrainian forces inflict heavy losses and prevent capture
April 30 jumps to 52%12%
(Russian offensive efforts near Lyman raised hopes of capture, pushing
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian forces report territorial gains but Russian strikes on railway infrastructure intensify
December 31 rises to 88%1%
Despite Ukrainian territorial gains in February, Russian forces increased attacks on railway infrastructure near Lyman, maintaining pressure on the strategic transport hub.
Feb 28 2026
Russian forces maintain offensive operations around Lyman with attacks on multiple nearby settlements
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, continuing efforts to encircle and capture the city, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked elsewhere.
Feb 25 2026
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman, capturing nearby villages and expanding penetration zones
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian troops seized four villages in the Lyman area and expanded operations in forests south of Lyman, consolidating positions and increasing chances of capturing the city.
Feb 24 2026
Russian forces in the Lyman direction experience communication issues impacting assault coordination;
June 30 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian forces strike Russian manpower near Torske east of Lyman, slowing Russian advances
Feb 20 2026
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman amid intensified attacks on railway infrastructure
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and infiltrated its outskirts, while shifting strikes to Ukrainian water and railway infrastructure, signaling increased pressure on the strategic railway hub.
Feb 20 2026
Ukrainian forces launch counterattacks near Lyman, repelling Russian advances and maintaining control over key positions
April 30 surges to 49%17%
(Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian difficulties in advancing near Lyman increased confidence in a possible Russian capture, temporarily raising
"Will Russia capture Lyman by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 60%, followed by "June 30" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?" is "December 31" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $2.2 million traded on “Will Russia capture Lyman by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 60¢ for "December 31" in the "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 60% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 60¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 40¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?" market has an active community of 93 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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