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Politics·Trump

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

icon for Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Politics·Trump

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

$245,282 Vol.

Aug 1, 2026
Polymarket

$245,282 Vol.

Polymarket

JD Vance

$33,404 Vol.

87%

Shehbaz Sharif

$6,019 Vol.

65%

Abbas Araghchi

$10,761 Vol.

60%

Donald Trump

$47,601 Vol.

37%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$11,138 Vol.

34%

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$6,944 Vol.

31%

Marco Rubio

$12,415 Vol.

18%

Steve Witkoff

$10,545 Vol.

18%

Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan

$1,113 Vol.

18%

King Abdullah II

$11,750 Vol.

16%

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

$2,054 Vol.

15%

Mohammed bin Salman

$4,894 Vol.

14%

Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah

$3,271 Vol.

11%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$28,889 Vol.

11%

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa

$8,342 Vol.

10%

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

$706 Vol.

8%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$11,321 Vol.

7%

Pete Hegseth

$31,659 Vol.

4%

Ali Larijani

$4,042 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Donald Trump’s administration has driven recent momentum toward a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding after multiple rounds of Oman-mediated nuclear talks collapsed amid 2025 strikes and resumed in early 2026 following Iranian protests. As of mid-June 2026, Trump stated an agreement addressing sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear limits is scheduled for imminent signing, with mediators noting draft text near finalization. Trader consensus reflects the president’s direct involvement and public timeline comments positioning him as the most likely signatory by the July 31 resolution date, while procedural details on ratification and any role for officials such as JD Vance remain unresolved amid ongoing verification of commitments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$245,282
End Date
Aug 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Donald Trump’s administration has driven recent momentum toward a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding after multiple rounds of Oman-mediated nuclear talks collapsed amid 2025 strikes and resumed in early 2026 following Iranian protests. As of mid-June 2026, Trump stated an agreement addressing sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and nuclear limits is scheduled for imminent signing, with mediators noting draft text near finalization. Trader consensus reflects the president’s direct involvement and public timeline comments positioning him as the most likely signatory by the July 31 resolution date, while procedural details on ratification and any role for officials such as JD Vance remain unresolved amid ongoing verification of commitments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$245,282
End Date
Aug 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 87%, followed by "Shehbaz Sharif" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" has generated $245.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" is "JD Vance" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Shehbaz Sharif" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.