The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 13 2026
Republican support declines amid lack of clear 2028 frontrunner and internal divisions
Republican dips to 39%4%
Republican market share dropped as no dominant candidate emerged and internal party challenges persisted, weakening their 2028 outlook.
Apr 9 2026
Kamala Harris expands book tour and increases public appearances, raising her profile for 2028
Democratic rises to 61%3%
Harris's active book tour and public engagement enhanced her visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, contributing to the market's Democratic.
Mar 29 2026
Polls show Democratic candidates Buttigieg, Harris, and Newsom leading 2028 primary preferences, with Democrats holding slight edge in generic ballot
Democratic rises to 58%3%
Polling data indicated Democratic frontrunners gaining ground and a narrow Democratic advantage in generic ballots, boosting market confidence in Democrats.
Jan 15 2026
Ken Martin elected chair of the Democratic National Committee, signaling party organizational stability
Martin's election as DNC chair brought leadership continuity and organizational focus to Democrats, supporting their electoral prospects.
Dec 18 2025
Democratic National Committee announces it will not release report on 2024 election failures, seen as benefiting Kamala Harris's standing
The DNC's decision was interpreted as shielding Harris and stabilizing her position as a potential 2028 candidate, maintaining Democratic market strength.
Nov 4 2025
Democrats flip governorship of Virginia and hold New Jersey governorship by large margins
Democratic victories in key gubernatorial races demonstrated electoral momentum and improved party prospects for 2026 and 2028, supporting the market's Democratic rise.
Sep 23 2025
Cory Booker delivers record-length Senate speech criticizing Trump and Elon Musk, raising his profile as a Democratic leader
Booker's high-profile protest speech positioned him as a rising Democratic figure, enhancing perceptions of Democratic leadership and contributing to market confidence.
Aug 2 2025
Democratic leaders including Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom increase fundraising and digital ad spending for 2028 potential runs
Democratic rises to 55%1%
Several Democrats laid groundwork for 2028 campaigns by raising significant funds and expanding digital presence, signaling party strength and energizing the market for Democrats.
Jul 15 2025
Republican National Convention concludes with no clear frontrunner for 2028 GOP nomination
The Republican convention ended without a dominant candidate emerging for 2028, leading to uncertainty and stagnation in Republican market support.
Apr 1 2025
Democratic candidates win special elections in Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts
Democrats secured victories in two Florida special elections, signaling continued strength in key districts and boosting confidence in the party's electoral prospects for 2026 and beyond.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 13 2026
Republican support declines amid lack of clear 2028 frontrunner and internal divisions
Republican dips to 39%4%
Republican market share dropped as no dominant candidate emerged and internal party challenges persisted, weakening their 2028 outlook.
Apr 9 2026
Kamala Harris expands book tour and increases public appearances, raising her profile for 2028
Democratic rises to 61%3%
Harris's active book tour and public engagement enhanced her visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, contributing to the market's Democratic.
Mar 29 2026
Polls show Democratic candidates Buttigieg, Harris, and Newsom leading 2028 primary preferences, with Democrats holding slight edge in generic ballot
Democratic rises to 58%3%
Polling data indicated Democratic frontrunners gaining ground and a narrow Democratic advantage in generic ballots, boosting market confidence in Democrats.
Jan 15 2026
Ken Martin elected chair of the Democratic National Committee, signaling party organizational stability
Martin's election as DNC chair brought leadership continuity and organizational focus to Democrats, supporting their electoral prospects.
Dec 18 2025
Democratic National Committee announces it will not release report on 2024 election failures, seen as benefiting Kamala Harris's standing
The DNC's decision was interpreted as shielding Harris and stabilizing her position as a potential 2028 candidate, maintaining Democratic market strength.
Nov 4 2025
Democrats flip governorship of Virginia and hold New Jersey governorship by large margins
Democratic victories in key gubernatorial races demonstrated electoral momentum and improved party prospects for 2026 and 2028, supporting the market's Democratic rise.
Sep 23 2025
Cory Booker delivers record-length Senate speech criticizing Trump and Elon Musk, raising his profile as a Democratic leader
Booker's high-profile protest speech positioned him as a rising Democratic figure, enhancing perceptions of Democratic leadership and contributing to market confidence.
Aug 2 2025
Democratic leaders including Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom increase fundraising and digital ad spending for 2028 potential runs
Democratic rises to 55%1%
Several Democrats laid groundwork for 2028 campaigns by raising significant funds and expanding digital presence, signaling party strength and energizing the market for Democrats.
Jul 15 2025
Republican National Convention concludes with no clear frontrunner for 2028 GOP nomination
The Republican convention ended without a dominant candidate emerging for 2028, leading to uncertainty and stagnation in Republican market support.
Apr 1 2025
Democratic candidates win special elections in Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts
Democrats secured victories in two Florida special elections, signaling continued strength in key districts and boosting confidence in the party's electoral prospects for 2026 and beyond.
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Frequently Asked Questions
"Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democratic" at 61%, followed by "Republican" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" is "Democratic" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.7 million traded on “Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 61¢ for "Democratic" in the "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 61% chance that "Democratic" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 61¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 39¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Nov 7, 2028 — that's roughly over 3 years away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.
The "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?" market has an active community of 72 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions