Incumbent Republican Brad Knott's decisive win in the March 3 Republican primary, where he secured renomination for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 83% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November general election. Democrat Paul Barringer emerged from a competitive primary as the nominee, but faces steep barriers in the redrawn district—favoring Republicans after October 2025 redistricting to encompass GOP-leaning Wake, Johnston, and surrounding counties. Absent recent polls or shifts, markets reflect Knott's freshman incumbency advantage, solid fundraising leads, and forecasters' ratings of the seat as safely Republican, with historical reelection rates exceeding 90% in such matchups. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond primary certifications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-13 House Election Winner
NC-13 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$262 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$2,511 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Knott's decisive win in the March 3 Republican primary, where he secured renomination for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 83% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November general election. Democrat Paul Barringer emerged from a competitive primary as the nominee, but faces steep barriers in the redrawn district—favoring Republicans after October 2025 redistricting to encompass GOP-leaning Wake, Johnston, and surrounding counties. Absent recent polls or shifts, markets reflect Knott's freshman incumbency advantage, solid fundraising leads, and forecasters' ratings of the seat as safely Republican, with historical reelection rates exceeding 90% in such matchups. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond primary certifications.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$2,773End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Knott's decisive win in the March 3 Republican primary, where he secured renomination for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 83% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November general election. Democrat Paul Barringer emerged from a competitive primary as the nominee, but faces steep barriers in the redrawn district—favoring Republicans after October 2025 redistricting to encompass GOP-leaning Wake, Johnston, and surrounding counties. Absent recent polls or shifts, markets reflect Knott's freshman incumbency advantage, solid fundraising leads, and forecasters' ratings of the seat as safely Republican, with historical reelection rates exceeding 90% in such matchups. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond primary certifications.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,773End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Knott's decisive win in the March 3 Republican primary, where he secured renomination for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, anchors trader consensus at 83% implied probability for a GOP victory in the November general election. Democrat Paul Barringer emerged from a competitive primary as the nominee, but faces steep barriers in the redrawn district—favoring Republicans after October 2025 redistricting to encompass GOP-leaning Wake, Johnston, and surrounding counties. Absent recent polls or shifts, markets reflect Knott's freshman incumbency advantage, solid fundraising leads, and forecasters' ratings of the seat as safely Republican, with historical reelection rates exceeding 90% in such matchups. No major catalysts have emerged in the past 30 days beyond primary certifications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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