The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones or significant disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of April 30, 2026, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 due to typical pre-season quiescence, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for no named storm before June 1. Elevated vertical wind shear and suboptimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (10–20°N, 60–20°W) hinder early tropical cyclone formation, despite globally warm SSTs and weak La Niña conditions forecasted by Colorado State University. Historically, first named storms average mid-June, with pre-season events rare (fewer than 20% of seasons since 1950). Upcoming NHC updates could highlight any invest areas, potentially altering odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$339,490 Vol.
$339,490 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$339,490 Vol.
$339,490 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones or significant disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of April 30, 2026, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 due to typical pre-season quiescence, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for no named storm before June 1. Elevated vertical wind shear and suboptimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (10–20°N, 60–20°W) hinder early tropical cyclone formation, despite globally warm SSTs and weak La Niña conditions forecasted by Colorado State University. Historically, first named storms average mid-June, with pre-season events rare (fewer than 20% of seasons since 1950). Upcoming NHC updates could highlight any invest areas, potentially altering odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$339,490End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones or significant disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of April 30, 2026, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 due to typical pre-season quiescence, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for no named storm before June 1. Elevated vertical wind shear and suboptimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (10–20°N, 60–20°W) hinder early tropical cyclone formation, despite globally warm SSTs and weak La Niña conditions forecasted by Colorado State University. Historically, first named storms average mid-June, with pre-season events rare (fewer than 20% of seasons since 1950). Upcoming NHC updates could highlight any invest areas, potentially altering odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$339,490End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms no tropical cyclones or significant disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of April 30, 2026, with Tropical Weather Outlook issuance paused until May 15 due to typical pre-season quiescence, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability for no named storm before June 1. Elevated vertical wind shear and suboptimal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (10–20°N, 60–20°W) hinder early tropical cyclone formation, despite globally warm SSTs and weak La Niña conditions forecasted by Colorado State University. Historically, first named storms average mid-June, with pre-season events rare (fewer than 20% of seasons since 1950). Upcoming NHC updates could highlight any invest areas, potentially altering odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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