Polymarket traders' consensus prices an evenly split implied probability of 49.5% across May unemployment rate outcomes of 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.5%, reflecting April's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing the rate steady at 4.3% alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000—below trend but signaling labor market resilience amid cooling wage growth. This tight clustering stems from the past week's initial jobless claims rising modestly to 200,000 for the period ending May 2, yet remaining historically low with continuing claims near two-year lows, underscoring low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming JOLTS data and weekly claims, which could tip sentiment if hiring softens further or economic headwinds intensify ahead of the June 6 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 45%
4.4% 35%
4.5% 27%
≤3.9% 25%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
25%
4.0%
23%
4.1%
24%
4.2%
24%
4.3%
45%
4.4%
35%
4.5%
27%
4.6%
25%
≥4.7%
18%
4.3% 45%
4.4% 35%
4.5% 27%
≤3.9% 25%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
$12 Vol.
25%
4.0%
$12 Vol.
23%
4.1%
$12 Vol.
24%
4.2%
$12 Vol.
24%
4.3%
$18 Vol.
45%
4.4%
$12 Vol.
35%
4.5%
$12 Vol.
27%
4.6%
$12 Vol.
25%
≥4.7%
$12 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' consensus prices an evenly split implied probability of 49.5% across May unemployment rate outcomes of 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.5%, reflecting April's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing the rate steady at 4.3% alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000—below trend but signaling labor market resilience amid cooling wage growth. This tight clustering stems from the past week's initial jobless claims rising modestly to 200,000 for the period ending May 2, yet remaining historically low with continuing claims near two-year lows, underscoring low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming JOLTS data and weekly claims, which could tip sentiment if hiring softens further or economic headwinds intensify ahead of the June 6 release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$115End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' consensus prices an evenly split implied probability of 49.5% across May unemployment rate outcomes of 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.5%, reflecting April's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing the rate steady at 4.3% alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000—below trend but signaling labor market resilience amid cooling wage growth. This tight clustering stems from the past week's initial jobless claims rising modestly to 200,000 for the period ending May 2, yet remaining historically low with continuing claims near two-year lows, underscoring low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming JOLTS data and weekly claims, which could tip sentiment if hiring softens further or economic headwinds intensify ahead of the June 6 release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$115End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' consensus prices an evenly split implied probability of 49.5% across May unemployment rate outcomes of 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.5%, reflecting April's Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing the rate steady at 4.3% alongside modest nonfarm payroll gains of 115,000—below trend but signaling labor market resilience amid cooling wage growth. This tight clustering stems from the past week's initial jobless claims rising modestly to 200,000 for the period ending May 2, yet remaining historically low with continuing claims near two-year lows, underscoring low layoff activity. Key swing factors include upcoming JOLTS data and weekly claims, which could tip sentiment if hiring softens further or economic headwinds intensify ahead of the June 6 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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