Polymarket traders price all May nonfarm payroll buckets—200k+, 150k–200k, 100k–150k, 50k–100k, 0–50k, and <0—at even 50% implied probabilities, reflecting deep uncertainty amid mixed labor signals following April's +115,000 headline print that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Supporting data shows private-sector strength via ADP's +109,000 April gain, historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ended May 2, and stable JOLTS openings near 6.9 million in March, yet offset by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 46.4. Key swing factors include upcoming May ADP (June 3) and ISM reports, with resolution hinging on the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many jobs added in May?
How many jobs added in May?
<0 42%
200k+ 41%
50k – 100k 39%
100k – 150k 39%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
<0
42%
0 – 50k
43%
50k – 100k
39%
100k – 150k
39%
150k – 200k
39%
200k+
41%
<0 42%
200k+ 41%
50k – 100k 39%
100k – 150k 39%
NEW
NEW
Jun 5, 2026
<0
$0 Vol.
42%
0 – 50k
$1 Vol.
43%
50k – 100k
$0 Vol.
39%
100k – 150k
$0 Vol.
39%
150k – 200k
$0 Vol.
39%
200k+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders price all May nonfarm payroll buckets—200k+, 150k–200k, 100k–150k, 50k–100k, 0–50k, and <0—at even 50% implied probabilities, reflecting deep uncertainty amid mixed labor signals following April's +115,000 headline print that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Supporting data shows private-sector strength via ADP's +109,000 April gain, historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ended May 2, and stable JOLTS openings near 6.9 million in March, yet offset by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 46.4. Key swing factors include upcoming May ADP (June 3) and ISM reports, with resolution hinging on the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$1End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmPolymarket traders price all May nonfarm payroll buckets—200k+, 150k–200k, 100k–150k, 50k–100k, 0–50k, and <0—at even 50% implied probabilities, reflecting deep uncertainty amid mixed labor signals following April's +115,000 headline print that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Supporting data shows private-sector strength via ADP's +109,000 April gain, historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ended May 2, and stable JOLTS openings near 6.9 million in March, yet offset by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 46.4. Key swing factors include upcoming May ADP (June 3) and ISM reports, with resolution hinging on the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$1End Date
Jun 5, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price all May nonfarm payroll buckets—200k+, 150k–200k, 100k–150k, 50k–100k, 0–50k, and <0—at even 50% implied probabilities, reflecting deep uncertainty amid mixed labor signals following April's +115,000 headline print that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Supporting data shows private-sector strength via ADP's +109,000 April gain, historically low initial jobless claims at 200,000 for the week ended May 2, and stable JOLTS openings near 6.9 million in March, yet offset by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 46.4. Key swing factors include upcoming May ADP (June 3) and ISM reports, with resolution hinging on the June 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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