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icon for What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?
Economy·Parcl·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?

icon for What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?
Economy·Parcl·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?

1.259 - 1.27m 51%

1.228 - 1.238m 27%

1.27 - 1.28m 27%

1.249 - 1.259m 27%

Polymarket
NEW

1.259 - 1.27m 51%

1.228 - 1.238m 27%

1.27 - 1.28m 27%

1.249 - 1.259m 27%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.228m

$0 Vol.

26%

1.228 - 1.238m

$0 Vol.

27%

1.238 - 1.249m

$0 Vol.

25%

1.249 - 1.259m

$0 Vol.

27%

1.259 - 1.27m

$0 Vol.

51%

1.27 - 1.28m

$0 Vol.

27%

1.28 - 1.301m

$0 Vol.

25%

>1.301m

$0 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026. If no data for May 31 is released by June 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/36)Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split across $1.228-1.259 million bins for San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro median home value on May 31, with implied probabilities near 49.5%, underscoring uncertainty in the closely contested race between continued appreciation and stabilization. Redfin's April 16 report highlighted March 2026 median sale prices surging 14.4% year-over-year to record highs amid an AI boom and low inventory, lifting ZHVI expectations from prior levels around $1.14-1.18 million. However, persistent mortgage rates near 6% constrain affordability, tempering upside while tech hiring trends support demand. Key swing factors include the imminent April ZHVI release and May sales data, poised to dictate positioning ahead of resolution via official Zillow metrics.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026. If no data for May 31 is released by June 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/36)
Volume
$0
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026. If no data for May 31 is released by June 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/36)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026. If no data for May 31 is released by June 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/36)Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split across $1.228-1.259 million bins for San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro median home value on May 31, with implied probabilities near 49.5%, underscoring uncertainty in the closely contested race between continued appreciation and stabilization. Redfin's April 16 report highlighted March 2026 median sale prices surging 14.4% year-over-year to record highs amid an AI boom and low inventory, lifting ZHVI expectations from prior levels around $1.14-1.18 million. However, persistent mortgage rates near 6% constrain affordability, tempering upside while tech hiring trends support demand. Key swing factors include the imminent April ZHVI release and May sales data, poised to dictate positioning ahead of resolution via official Zillow metrics.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026. If no data for May 31 is released by June 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/36)
Volume
$0
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026. If no data for May 31 is released by June 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/36)

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.228 - 1.238m" at 27%, followed by "1.249 - 1.259m" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?" is "1.228 - 1.238m" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.249 - 1.259m" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.