South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office following his June 2025 election victory, triggering constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from criminal prosecution or arrest except in cases of insurrection or treason. Multiple pending trials—including election-law violations and corruption allegations tied to prior scandals—have been suspended or indefinitely delayed by courts, consistent with longstanding precedent. His Democratic Party’s decisive gains in the June 2026 local elections have further consolidated political support and reduced near-term institutional pressure. Traders assign an 89.3 percent probability to no arrest before 2027 because these structural protections and recent electoral results make enforcement action highly unlikely within the window, barring unprecedented legal or political reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$441,568 Vol.
$441,568 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$441,568 Vol.
$441,568 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office following his June 2025 election victory, triggering constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from criminal prosecution or arrest except in cases of insurrection or treason. Multiple pending trials—including election-law violations and corruption allegations tied to prior scandals—have been suspended or indefinitely delayed by courts, consistent with longstanding precedent. His Democratic Party’s decisive gains in the June 2026 local elections have further consolidated political support and reduced near-term institutional pressure. Traders assign an 89.3 percent probability to no arrest before 2027 because these structural protections and recent electoral results make enforcement action highly unlikely within the window, barring unprecedented legal or political reversals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$441,568End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office following his June 2025 election victory, triggering constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from criminal prosecution or arrest except in cases of insurrection or treason. Multiple pending trials—including election-law violations and corruption allegations tied to prior scandals—have been suspended or indefinitely delayed by courts, consistent with longstanding precedent. His Democratic Party’s decisive gains in the June 2026 local elections have further consolidated political support and reduced near-term institutional pressure. Traders assign an 89.3 percent probability to no arrest before 2027 because these structural protections and recent electoral results make enforcement action highly unlikely within the window, barring unprecedented legal or political reversals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$441,568End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office following his June 2025 election victory, triggering constitutional immunity that shields sitting presidents from criminal prosecution or arrest except in cases of insurrection or treason. Multiple pending trials—including election-law violations and corruption allegations tied to prior scandals—have been suspended or indefinitely delayed by courts, consistent with longstanding precedent. His Democratic Party’s decisive gains in the June 2026 local elections have further consolidated political support and reduced near-term institutional pressure. Traders assign an 89.3 percent probability to no arrest before 2027 because these structural protections and recent electoral results make enforcement action highly unlikely within the window, barring unprecedented legal or political reversals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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