Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and others, center trader attention on prospects for formal de-escalation following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire. A June 14 memorandum of understanding outlines steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease some sanctions, and address Lebanon hostilities within a 60-day framework, though nuclear and missile issues remain deferred. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasize requirements for removing enriched material, limiting proxies, and preserving defensive operations against Hezbollah, concerns that have produced public criticism of the emerging terms. Intermittent June strikes between Israel, Iran, and Lebanese targets underscore the fragility of current restraints. A direct bilateral permanent peace agreement faces structural barriers from longstanding enmity and regional proxy dynamics, with any near-term resolution more likely to emerge indirectly through broader US-brokered understandings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$8,035,993 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
June 30
25%
July 31
40%
$8,035,993 Vol.
June 30
$5,043,434 Vol.
25%
July 31
$5,069 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and others, center trader attention on prospects for formal de-escalation following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire. A June 14 memorandum of understanding outlines steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease some sanctions, and address Lebanon hostilities within a 60-day framework, though nuclear and missile issues remain deferred. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasize requirements for removing enriched material, limiting proxies, and preserving defensive operations against Hezbollah, concerns that have produced public criticism of the emerging terms. Intermittent June strikes between Israel, Iran, and Lebanese targets underscore the fragility of current restraints. A direct bilateral permanent peace agreement faces structural barriers from longstanding enmity and regional proxy dynamics, with any near-term resolution more likely to emerge indirectly through broader US-brokered understandings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$8,035,993End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and others, center trader attention on prospects for formal de-escalation following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire. A June 14 memorandum of understanding outlines steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease some sanctions, and address Lebanon hostilities within a 60-day framework, though nuclear and missile issues remain deferred. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasize requirements for removing enriched material, limiting proxies, and preserving defensive operations against Hezbollah, concerns that have produced public criticism of the emerging terms. Intermittent June strikes between Israel, Iran, and Lebanese targets underscore the fragility of current restraints. A direct bilateral permanent peace agreement faces structural barriers from longstanding enmity and regional proxy dynamics, with any near-term resolution more likely to emerge indirectly through broader US-brokered understandings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,035,993End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and others, center trader attention on prospects for formal de-escalation following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire. A June 14 memorandum of understanding outlines steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease some sanctions, and address Lebanon hostilities within a 60-day framework, though nuclear and missile issues remain deferred. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasize requirements for removing enriched material, limiting proxies, and preserving defensive operations against Hezbollah, concerns that have produced public criticism of the emerging terms. Intermittent June strikes between Israel, Iran, and Lebanese targets underscore the fragility of current restraints. A direct bilateral permanent peace agreement faces structural barriers from longstanding enmity and regional proxy dynamics, with any near-term resolution more likely to emerge indirectly through broader US-brokered understandings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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