Polymarket traders price a 94% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete timelines or Treasury/FHFA announcements despite ongoing government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform discussions under the Trump administration. FHFA Director Pulte recently affirmed readiness via adoption of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit models, but deferred to presidential green light, with his 12-18 month conservatorship exit target extending beyond H2 2026; analysts like KBW cite midterm election risks narrowing privatization windows, while Michael Burry pegs IPOs at 2027 earliest. Q1 2026 net income of $3.7 billion underscores profitability, yet lacks immediate exit catalyst. Realistic challenges include abrupt executive directive or fast-tracked capital raise, though two-month proximity amplifies resolution risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 94.2%
300–350B 2.7%
350–400B 2.4%
<200B 2.1%
$295,873 Vol.
$295,873 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<200B
2%
200–250B
<1%
250–300B
<1%
300–350B
3%
350–400B
2%
400B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
94%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 94.2%
300–350B 2.7%
350–400B 2.4%
<200B 2.1%
$295,873 Vol.
$295,873 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<200B
$44,647 Vol.
2%
200–250B
$48,884 Vol.
<1%
250–300B
$12,781 Vol.
<1%
300–350B
$104,802 Vol.
3%
350–400B
$12,015 Vol.
2%
400B+
$54,451 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$18,293 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a 94% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete timelines or Treasury/FHFA announcements despite ongoing government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform discussions under the Trump administration. FHFA Director Pulte recently affirmed readiness via adoption of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit models, but deferred to presidential green light, with his 12-18 month conservatorship exit target extending beyond H2 2026; analysts like KBW cite midterm election risks narrowing privatization windows, while Michael Burry pegs IPOs at 2027 earliest. Q1 2026 net income of $3.7 billion underscores profitability, yet lacks immediate exit catalyst. Realistic challenges include abrupt executive directive or fast-tracked capital raise, though two-month proximity amplifies resolution risk.
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$295,873End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a 94% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete timelines or Treasury/FHFA announcements despite ongoing government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform discussions under the Trump administration. FHFA Director Pulte recently affirmed readiness via adoption of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit models, but deferred to presidential green light, with his 12-18 month conservatorship exit target extending beyond H2 2026; analysts like KBW cite midterm election risks narrowing privatization windows, while Michael Burry pegs IPOs at 2027 earliest. Q1 2026 net income of $3.7 billion underscores profitability, yet lacks immediate exit catalyst. Realistic challenges include abrupt executive directive or fast-tracked capital raise, though two-month proximity amplifies resolution risk.
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$295,873End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 94% implied probability of no Fannie Mae IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of concrete timelines or Treasury/FHFA announcements despite ongoing government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform discussions under the Trump administration. FHFA Director Pulte recently affirmed readiness via adoption of FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit models, but deferred to presidential green light, with his 12-18 month conservatorship exit target extending beyond H2 2026; analysts like KBW cite midterm election risks narrowing privatization windows, while Michael Burry pegs IPOs at 2027 earliest. Q1 2026 net income of $3.7 billion underscores profitability, yet lacks immediate exit catalyst. Realistic challenges include abrupt executive directive or fast-tracked capital raise, though two-month proximity amplifies resolution risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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