Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in California's deep-blue 16th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The Silicon Valley seat, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024, saw Liccardo defeat fellow Democrat Evan Low 58%-42% last cycle, bolstered by his $2 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Recent filings closed March 6 with minimal challengers—Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, plus independent Jotham Stein—posing little threat to advance. Scenarios like GOP consolidation, a primary upset, scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-16 House Election Winner
CA-16 House Election Winner
$72,924 Vol.
$72,924 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$72,924 Vol.
$72,924 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$50,067 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$22,857 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in California's deep-blue 16th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The Silicon Valley seat, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024, saw Liccardo defeat fellow Democrat Evan Low 58%-42% last cycle, bolstered by his $2 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Recent filings closed March 6 with minimal challengers—Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, plus independent Jotham Stein—posing little threat to advance. Scenarios like GOP consolidation, a primary upset, scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$72,924End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in California's deep-blue 16th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The Silicon Valley seat, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024, saw Liccardo defeat fellow Democrat Evan Low 58%-42% last cycle, bolstered by his $2 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Recent filings closed March 6 with minimal challengers—Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, plus independent Jotham Stein—posing little threat to advance. Scenarios like GOP consolidation, a primary upset, scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$72,924End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo's commanding position in California's deep-blue 16th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, drives trader consensus pricing a Democratic win at 92.5% ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. The Silicon Valley seat, where Kamala Harris won 72% in 2024, saw Liccardo defeat fellow Democrat Evan Low 58%-42% last cycle, bolstered by his $2 million cash-on-hand as of late March. Recent filings closed March 6 with minimal challengers—Republicans Kevin Johnson and Peter Soule, plus independent Jotham Stein—posing little threat to advance. Scenarios like GOP consolidation, a primary upset, scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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