Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude on the moment magnitude scale correlates with fault rupture length and area; the longest subduction zone faults, like Chile's, span roughly 1,000–1,200 km, capping potential at around 9.5–9.6, as seen in the record 1960 Valdivia event. No fault system could rupture sufficiently for magnitude 10 without encircling the globe. Recent 2026 seismicity remains modest, with no M9+ events globally per USGS catalogs, and continuous monitoring shows no anomalous precursors. Only an unprecedented measurement error or undetected mega-fault could challenge this, though both are implausible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$589,737 Vol.
$589,737 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$589,737 Vol.
$589,737 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude on the moment magnitude scale correlates with fault rupture length and area; the longest subduction zone faults, like Chile's, span roughly 1,000–1,200 km, capping potential at around 9.5–9.6, as seen in the record 1960 Valdivia event. No fault system could rupture sufficiently for magnitude 10 without encircling the globe. Recent 2026 seismicity remains modest, with no M9+ events globally per USGS catalogs, and continuous monitoring shows no anomalous precursors. Only an unprecedented measurement error or undetected mega-fault could challenge this, though both are implausible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$589,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude on the moment magnitude scale correlates with fault rupture length and area; the longest subduction zone faults, like Chile's, span roughly 1,000–1,200 km, capping potential at around 9.5–9.6, as seen in the record 1960 Valdivia event. No fault system could rupture sufficiently for magnitude 10 without encircling the globe. Recent 2026 seismicity remains modest, with no M9+ events globally per USGS catalogs, and continuous monitoring shows no anomalous precursors. Only an unprecedented measurement error or undetected mega-fault could challenge this, though both are implausible.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$589,737End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake occurring before 2027, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude on the moment magnitude scale correlates with fault rupture length and area; the longest subduction zone faults, like Chile's, span roughly 1,000–1,200 km, capping potential at around 9.5–9.6, as seen in the record 1960 Valdivia event. No fault system could rupture sufficiently for magnitude 10 without encircling the globe. Recent 2026 seismicity remains modest, with no M9+ events globally per USGS catalogs, and continuous monitoring shows no anomalous precursors. Only an unprecedented measurement error or undetected mega-fault could challenge this, though both are implausible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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