Trader consensus has coalesced around 12 SpaceX launches in April at 92.5% implied probability, driven by the company's unrelenting cadence that delivered its 50th mission of 2026 on April 26—a Starlink deployment from Vandenberg—followed by a Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 F3 liftoff and another Starlink batch on April 29 from California and Florida sites. This late-month surge, amid flawless first-stage recoveries and no major anomalies, solidified the tally with April 30 marking the final day and no viable windows for additional flights before May. While the overwhelming frontrunner status underscores SpaceX's operational dominance as a cultural launch spectacle, realistic upsets hinge on an improbable last-second scrub reclassifying a mission or a surprise ride-share pushing to 13, though historical patterns and tight scheduling make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12 79.9%
≤11 5.9%
13 3.0%
15 <1%
$99,194 Vol.
$99,194 Vol.
≤11
6%
12
85%
13
3%
14
<1%
15
1%
16
<1%
17 or more
<1%
12 79.9%
≤11 5.9%
13 3.0%
15 <1%
$99,194 Vol.
$99,194 Vol.
≤11
6%
12
85%
13
3%
14
<1%
15
1%
16
<1%
17 or more
<1%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has coalesced around 12 SpaceX launches in April at 92.5% implied probability, driven by the company's unrelenting cadence that delivered its 50th mission of 2026 on April 26—a Starlink deployment from Vandenberg—followed by a Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 F3 liftoff and another Starlink batch on April 29 from California and Florida sites. This late-month surge, amid flawless first-stage recoveries and no major anomalies, solidified the tally with April 30 marking the final day and no viable windows for additional flights before May. While the overwhelming frontrunner status underscores SpaceX's operational dominance as a cultural launch spectacle, realistic upsets hinge on an improbable last-second scrub reclassifying a mission or a surprise ride-share pushing to 13, though historical patterns and tight scheduling make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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