Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the vehicle's conceptual status since its October 2024 unveiling and Tesla's sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production, which began low-volume pilots at Giga Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). California regulators reported zero operational robotaxis as of March 2026, underscoring approval delays critical for steering-wheel-free vehicles like the Robovan, while Elon Musk's recent van tease lacked timeline specifics. Prioritizing robotaxi fleet scaling for late-2026 U.S. rollout leaves Robovan as a lower-priority autonomous platform, with historical Tesla delays reinforcing skepticism absent a surprise Q2 earnings catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$31,336 Vol.
$31,336 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$31,336 Vol.
$31,336 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the vehicle's conceptual status since its October 2024 unveiling and Tesla's sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production, which began low-volume pilots at Giga Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). California regulators reported zero operational robotaxis as of March 2026, underscoring approval delays critical for steering-wheel-free vehicles like the Robovan, while Elon Musk's recent van tease lacked timeline specifics. Prioritizing robotaxi fleet scaling for late-2026 U.S. rollout leaves Robovan as a lower-priority autonomous platform, with historical Tesla delays reinforcing skepticism absent a surprise Q2 earnings catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volumen
$31,336Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the vehicle's conceptual status since its October 2024 unveiling and Tesla's sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production, which began low-volume pilots at Giga Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). California regulators reported zero operational robotaxis as of March 2026, underscoring approval delays critical for steering-wheel-free vehicles like the Robovan, while Elon Musk's recent van tease lacked timeline specifics. Prioritizing robotaxi fleet scaling for late-2026 U.S. rollout leaves Robovan as a lower-priority autonomous platform, with historical Tesla delays reinforcing skepticism absent a surprise Q2 earnings catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$31,336Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability against Tesla opening Robovan orders before 2027, driven by the vehicle's conceptual status since its October 2024 unveiling and Tesla's sharp pivot to Cybercab robotaxi production, which began low-volume pilots at Giga Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing regulatory hurdles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). California regulators reported zero operational robotaxis as of March 2026, underscoring approval delays critical for steering-wheel-free vehicles like the Robovan, while Elon Musk's recent van tease lacked timeline specifics. Prioritizing robotaxi fleet scaling for late-2026 U.S. rollout leaves Robovan as a lower-priority autonomous platform, with historical Tesla delays reinforcing skepticism absent a surprise Q2 earnings catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes