Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a full social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demos five months into the year, despite January rumors of a biometric-verified platform to combat bots like those plaguing X. The recent April 26 shutdown of OpenAI's Sora 2 social video app—launched late 2025 as a niche AI content feed but deemed outdated amid rapid model advances—signals a pivot away from social experiments, with internal concerns over brand dilution and safety risks cited in March reports. OpenAI's focus has shifted to core AI capabilities, agentic systems, and rumored 2028 AI smartphone hardware partnerships with Qualcomm and MediaTek, leaving traders skeptical of resource allocation to a competitive social space dominated by Meta and X, absent a major catalyst like an upfront reveal at upcoming developer events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
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31 dic 2026
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a full social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demos five months into the year, despite January rumors of a biometric-verified platform to combat bots like those plaguing X. The recent April 26 shutdown of OpenAI's Sora 2 social video app—launched late 2025 as a niche AI content feed but deemed outdated amid rapid model advances—signals a pivot away from social experiments, with internal concerns over brand dilution and safety risks cited in March reports. OpenAI's focus has shifted to core AI capabilities, agentic systems, and rumored 2028 AI smartphone hardware partnerships with Qualcomm and MediaTek, leaving traders skeptical of resource allocation to a competitive social space dominated by Meta and X, absent a major catalyst like an upfront reveal at upcoming developer events.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Volumen
$5,409Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a full social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demos five months into the year, despite January rumors of a biometric-verified platform to combat bots like those plaguing X. The recent April 26 shutdown of OpenAI's Sora 2 social video app—launched late 2025 as a niche AI content feed but deemed outdated amid rapid model advances—signals a pivot away from social experiments, with internal concerns over brand dilution and safety risks cited in March reports. OpenAI's focus has shifted to core AI capabilities, agentic systems, and rumored 2028 AI smartphone hardware partnerships with Qualcomm and MediaTek, leaving traders skeptical of resource allocation to a competitive social space dominated by Meta and X, absent a major catalyst like an upfront reveal at upcoming developer events.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$5,409Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a full social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demos five months into the year, despite January rumors of a biometric-verified platform to combat bots like those plaguing X. The recent April 26 shutdown of OpenAI's Sora 2 social video app—launched late 2025 as a niche AI content feed but deemed outdated amid rapid model advances—signals a pivot away from social experiments, with internal concerns over brand dilution and safety risks cited in March reports. OpenAI's focus has shifted to core AI capabilities, agentic systems, and rumored 2028 AI smartphone hardware partnerships with Qualcomm and MediaTek, leaving traders skeptical of resource allocation to a competitive social space dominated by Meta and X, absent a major catalyst like an upfront reveal at upcoming developer events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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