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Geopolítica·Nuclear

¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Nuclear

¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket

$116,931 Vol.

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket

$116,931 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite Iranian lawmakers submitting a bill in late March 2026 to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty amid US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, Tehran has taken no formal steps to exit, such as issuing the required three-month notice, fueling trader consensus at 87% against withdrawal before 2027. This echoes Iran's repeated unfulfilled threats since 2004, even as IAEA safeguards disputes persist over access to damaged sites and undeclared materials. Participation in the ongoing NPT review conference in New York underscores continued diplomatic engagement, while escalation risks—formal parliamentary vote, renewed sanctions, or further military actions—remain low-probability catalysts that could shift odds. Historical non-withdrawal patterns reinforce the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$116,931
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite Iranian lawmakers submitting a bill in late March 2026 to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty amid US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, Tehran has taken no formal steps to exit, such as issuing the required three-month notice, fueling trader consensus at 87% against withdrawal before 2027. This echoes Iran's repeated unfulfilled threats since 2004, even as IAEA safeguards disputes persist over access to damaged sites and undeclared materials. Participation in the ongoing NPT review conference in New York underscores continued diplomatic engagement, while escalation risks—formal parliamentary vote, renewed sanctions, or further military actions—remain low-probability catalysts that could shift odds. Historical non-withdrawal patterns reinforce the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$116,931
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Se retirará Irán del TNP antes de 2027?" con 13%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 13¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?" ha generado $116.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?" es "¿Se retirará Irán del TNP antes de 2027?" con 13%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Irán se retirará del TNP antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.