Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded the People's Republic of China is unlikely to attempt an amphibious assault in 2027 due to military readiness shortfalls from Xi Jinping's ongoing PLA purges and economic constraints. Recent developments, including April espionage operations targeting Taiwanese military personnel and routine gray-zone activities like airspace incursions, show no signs of invasion mobilization such as large-scale amphibious rehearsals or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait. Heightened U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and potential sanctions continue to elevate the risks for Beijing, though sudden escalation signals or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$465,194 Vol.
$465,194 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
$465,194 Vol.
$465,194 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded the People's Republic of China is unlikely to attempt an amphibious assault in 2027 due to military readiness shortfalls from Xi Jinping's ongoing PLA purges and economic constraints. Recent developments, including April espionage operations targeting Taiwanese military personnel and routine gray-zone activities like airspace incursions, show no signs of invasion mobilization such as large-scale amphibious rehearsals or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait. Heightened U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and potential sanctions continue to elevate the risks for Beijing, though sudden escalation signals or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$465,194Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded the People's Republic of China is unlikely to attempt an amphibious assault in 2027 due to military readiness shortfalls from Xi Jinping's ongoing PLA purges and economic constraints. Recent developments, including April espionage operations targeting Taiwanese military personnel and routine gray-zone activities like airspace incursions, show no signs of invasion mobilization such as large-scale amphibious rehearsals or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait. Heightened U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and potential sanctions continue to elevate the risks for Beijing, though sudden escalation signals or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$465,194Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments like the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded the People's Republic of China is unlikely to attempt an amphibious assault in 2027 due to military readiness shortfalls from Xi Jinping's ongoing PLA purges and economic constraints. Recent developments, including April espionage operations targeting Taiwanese military personnel and routine gray-zone activities like airspace incursions, show no signs of invasion mobilization such as large-scale amphibious rehearsals or logistics buildup in the Taiwan Strait. Heightened U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, and potential sanctions continue to elevate the risks for Beijing, though sudden escalation signals or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes