Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for "No" on AI facing criminal charges before 2027, driven by the fundamental absence of legal personhood for artificial intelligence systems worldwide. Under current law, AI lacks the agency required for criminal liability, with accountability instead assigned to developers, deployers, or users—as seen in recent cases like Florida prosecutors using ChatGPT logs against a murder suspect or sanctions on lawyers for AI-generated false filings. Recent U.S. state laws explicitly rejecting AI personhood, alongside academic debates and Vatican discussions, have further solidified this stance without advancing prosecutorial precedents. While rapid AI capability advances spark ethical concerns, regulatory inertia and the complexity of redefining criminal law make a breakthrough unlikely in the next 19 months, though surprise court rulings could shift sentiment.