Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release that vaulted it to a leading Elo score near 1505—surpassing rivals amid frequent 2026 updates like Opus 4.6. Google's 28% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strength in reasoning and multimodal benchmarks, closing the gap to 1494 Elo per Stanford's April AI Index, positioning it as the chief challenger with rumored mid-year upgrades. OpenAI's odds slipped to 7.5% after GPT-5.5's April 23 debut underperformed in head-to-head tests against Claude. xAI trails at 4.2% despite 1495 Elo proximity. Watch for pre-deadline model launches and fresh evaluations driving leaderboard shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 56%
Google 27%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 4.2%
$1,424,808 Vol.
$1,424,808 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
56%
27%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
4%
DeepSeek
2%
Z.ai
2%
Meta
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
1%
Moonshot
1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 56%
Google 27%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 4.2%
$1,424,808 Vol.
$1,424,808 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$26,602 Vol.
56%
$17,225 Vol.
27%
OpenAI
$47,883 Vol.
8%
xAI
$12,360 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$199,823 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$412,077 Vol.
2%
Meta
$6,013 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$12,534 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$269,096 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$134,757 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$17,264 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,157 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$52,008 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,507 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,501 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release that vaulted it to a leading Elo score near 1505—surpassing rivals amid frequent 2026 updates like Opus 4.6. Google's 28% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strength in reasoning and multimodal benchmarks, closing the gap to 1494 Elo per Stanford's April AI Index, positioning it as the chief challenger with rumored mid-year upgrades. OpenAI's odds slipped to 7.5% after GPT-5.5's April 23 debut underperformed in head-to-head tests against Claude. xAI trails at 4.2% despite 1495 Elo proximity. Watch for pre-deadline model launches and fresh evaluations driving leaderboard shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,424,808Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release that vaulted it to a leading Elo score near 1505—surpassing rivals amid frequent 2026 updates like Opus 4.6. Google's 28% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strength in reasoning and multimodal benchmarks, closing the gap to 1494 Elo per Stanford's April AI Index, positioning it as the chief challenger with rumored mid-year upgrades. OpenAI's odds slipped to 7.5% after GPT-5.5's April 23 debut underperformed in head-to-head tests against Claude. xAI trails at 4.2% despite 1495 Elo proximity. Watch for pre-deadline model launches and fresh evaluations driving leaderboard shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,424,808Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55% implied probability of topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, 2026, fueled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release that vaulted it to a leading Elo score near 1505—surpassing rivals amid frequent 2026 updates like Opus 4.6. Google's 28% share reflects Gemini 3.1 Pro's strength in reasoning and multimodal benchmarks, closing the gap to 1494 Elo per Stanford's April AI Index, positioning it as the chief challenger with rumored mid-year upgrades. OpenAI's odds slipped to 7.5% after GPT-5.5's April 23 debut underperformed in head-to-head tests against Claude. xAI trails at 4.2% despite 1495 Elo proximity. Watch for pre-deadline model launches and fresh evaluations driving leaderboard shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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