Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 58% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April launch, which propelled it to the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo ratings near 1503, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 in reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 24% on multimodal strengths and cost efficiency from its February release plus recent desktop app rollout, though it trails in latest agentic tasks. OpenAI's 9.6% reflects its perceived #1 status; xAI's Grok 4 at 5.1% gains from coding prowess but lacks scale. Key catalysts ahead: potential Grok 5 preview and Google I/O announcements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 58%
Google 23%
OpenAI 9.0%
xAI 5.1%
$371,634 Vol.
$371,634 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
58%
23%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
5%
DeepSeek
3%
Z.ai
2%
Meta
2%
Amazon
1%
Moonshot
1%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 58%
Google 23%
OpenAI 9.0%
xAI 5.1%
$371,634 Vol.
$371,634 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$8,464 Vol.
58%
$5,223 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$33,789 Vol.
9%
xAI
$13,545 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$247,228 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$7,346 Vol.
2%
Meta
$2,876 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$1,436 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$3,611 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$3,328 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$5,108 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$2,063 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$2,199 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,728 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$32,690 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 58% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April launch, which propelled it to the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo ratings near 1503, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 in reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 24% on multimodal strengths and cost efficiency from its February release plus recent desktop app rollout, though it trails in latest agentic tasks. OpenAI's 9.6% reflects its perceived #1 status; xAI's Grok 4 at 5.1% gains from coding prowess but lacks scale. Key catalysts ahead: potential Grok 5 preview and Google I/O announcements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$371,634Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 58% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April launch, which propelled it to the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo ratings near 1503, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 in reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 24% on multimodal strengths and cost efficiency from its February release plus recent desktop app rollout, though it trails in latest agentic tasks. OpenAI's 9.6% reflects its perceived #1 status; xAI's Grok 4 at 5.1% gains from coding prowess but lacks scale. Key catalysts ahead: potential Grok 5 preview and Google I/O announcements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$371,634Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 58% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April launch, which propelled it to the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo ratings near 1503, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-5.4/5.5 in reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 24% on multimodal strengths and cost efficiency from its February release plus recent desktop app rollout, though it trails in latest agentic tasks. OpenAI's 9.6% reflects its perceived #1 status; xAI's Grok 4 at 5.1% gains from coding prowess but lacks scale. Key catalysts ahead: potential Grok 5 preview and Google I/O announcements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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