Recent year-to-date data show 2026 global temperatures tracking as the fourth-warmest start on record through May, with May itself ranking second-warmest, according to NOAA and Copernicus analyses. A developing El Niño is now strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies and is expected to elevate the annual mean, positioning 2026 as the likely second-warmest year behind 2024 while leaving a realistic path to first place if late-year anomalies exceed prior peaks. This aligns with WMO and model outlooks assigning high probability to a top-four finish and explains the market’s strong preference for second place over lower ranks. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August temperature releases will further refine these implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 65%
1 26%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.8%
4 3.8%
$2,950,730 Vol.
$2,950,730 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
26%
2
65%
3
3%
4
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
<1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
4%
2 65%
1 26%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.8%
4 3.8%
$2,950,730 Vol.
$2,950,730 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$481,089 Vol.
26%
2
$339,623 Vol.
65%
3
$456,362 Vol.
3%
4
$440,641 Vol.
4%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$754,172 Vol.
<1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$478,843 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent year-to-date data show 2026 global temperatures tracking as the fourth-warmest start on record through May, with May itself ranking second-warmest, according to NOAA and Copernicus analyses. A developing El Niño is now strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies and is expected to elevate the annual mean, positioning 2026 as the likely second-warmest year behind 2024 while leaving a realistic path to first place if late-year anomalies exceed prior peaks. This aligns with WMO and model outlooks assigning high probability to a top-four finish and explains the market’s strong preference for second place over lower ranks. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August temperature releases will further refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,950,730Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent year-to-date data show 2026 global temperatures tracking as the fourth-warmest start on record through May, with May itself ranking second-warmest, according to NOAA and Copernicus analyses. A developing El Niño is now strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies and is expected to elevate the annual mean, positioning 2026 as the likely second-warmest year behind 2024 while leaving a realistic path to first place if late-year anomalies exceed prior peaks. This aligns with WMO and model outlooks assigning high probability to a top-four finish and explains the market’s strong preference for second place over lower ranks. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August temperature releases will further refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,950,730Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent year-to-date data show 2026 global temperatures tracking as the fourth-warmest start on record through May, with May itself ranking second-warmest, according to NOAA and Copernicus analyses. A developing El Niño is now strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies and is expected to elevate the annual mean, positioning 2026 as the likely second-warmest year behind 2024 while leaving a realistic path to first place if late-year anomalies exceed prior peaks. This aligns with WMO and model outlooks assigning high probability to a top-four finish and explains the market’s strong preference for second place over lower ranks. Updated seasonal forecasts and June–August temperature releases will further refine these implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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