Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record at 55.5% implied probability, with a solid 35% chance of claiming the top spot, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data showing January through March 2026 among the five warmest starts on record—March tied for second-warmest globally at 1.31–1.48°C above 20th-century or pre-industrial baselines. This positions year-to-date temperatures as the second-warmest, building on 2024's record and 2023/2025's near-ties for second. The key catalyst is NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% chance persisting year-end), historically amplifying global heat by 0.1–0.2°C. Uncertainty lingers in model ensembles and greenhouse gas trends, with updated NOAA outlooks expected monthly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 56%
1 35%
4 4.5%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.9%
$2,724,473 Vol.
$2,724,473 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
35%
2
56%
3
3%
4
5%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
4%
2 56%
1 35%
4 4.5%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 3.9%
$2,724,473 Vol.
$2,724,473 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$436,977 Vol.
35%
2
$306,294 Vol.
56%
3
$401,378 Vol.
3%
4
$404,896 Vol.
5%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$716,880 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$458,049 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record at 55.5% implied probability, with a solid 35% chance of claiming the top spot, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data showing January through March 2026 among the five warmest starts on record—March tied for second-warmest globally at 1.31–1.48°C above 20th-century or pre-industrial baselines. This positions year-to-date temperatures as the second-warmest, building on 2024's record and 2023/2025's near-ties for second. The key catalyst is NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% chance persisting year-end), historically amplifying global heat by 0.1–0.2°C. Uncertainty lingers in model ensembles and greenhouse gas trends, with updated NOAA outlooks expected monthly.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,724,473Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record at 55.5% implied probability, with a solid 35% chance of claiming the top spot, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data showing January through March 2026 among the five warmest starts on record—March tied for second-warmest globally at 1.31–1.48°C above 20th-century or pre-industrial baselines. This positions year-to-date temperatures as the second-warmest, building on 2024's record and 2023/2025's near-ties for second. The key catalyst is NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% chance persisting year-end), historically amplifying global heat by 0.1–0.2°C. Uncertainty lingers in model ensembles and greenhouse gas trends, with updated NOAA outlooks expected monthly.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,724,473Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2026 ranking as the second-hottest year on record at 55.5% implied probability, with a solid 35% chance of claiming the top spot, driven by NOAA and Copernicus data showing January through March 2026 among the five warmest starts on record—March tied for second-warmest globally at 1.31–1.48°C above 20th-century or pre-industrial baselines. This positions year-to-date temperatures as the second-warmest, building on 2024's record and 2023/2025's near-ties for second. The key catalyst is NOAA's forecast of ENSO-neutral conditions through mid-2026 transitioning to El Niño by summer (61% chance persisting year-end), historically amplifying global heat by 0.1–0.2°C. Uncertainty lingers in model ensembles and greenhouse gas trends, with updated NOAA outlooks expected monthly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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