Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent U.S.-led overtures. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is seeking details on Russia's short-term Victory Day truce proposal floated to President Trump during their April 30 phone call, countering with demands for a long-term pause backed by security guarantees, but Russia launched massive strikes hours later, underscoring ongoing hostilities. Prior limited truces, like the Orthodox Easter halt in April, failed to halt broader fighting, with Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian drone dominance signaling no mutual de-escalation. Upcoming May 9 talks offer slim prospects for a qualifying general pause amid incompatible territorial and NATO demands.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
Sí
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Gana un 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent U.S.-led overtures. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is seeking details on Russia's short-term Victory Day truce proposal floated to President Trump during their April 30 phone call, countering with demands for a long-term pause backed by security guarantees, but Russia launched massive strikes hours later, underscoring ongoing hostilities. Prior limited truces, like the Orthodox Easter halt in April, failed to halt broader fighting, with Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian drone dominance signaling no mutual de-escalation. Upcoming May 9 talks offer slim prospects for a qualifying general pause amid incompatible territorial and NATO demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent U.S.-led overtures. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is seeking details on Russia's short-term Victory Day truce proposal floated to President Trump during their April 30 phone call, countering with demands for a long-term pause backed by security guarantees, but Russia launched massive strikes hours later, underscoring ongoing hostilities. Prior limited truces, like the Orthodox Easter halt in April, failed to halt broader fighting, with Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian drone dominance signaling no mutual de-escalation. Upcoming May 9 talks offer slim prospects for a qualifying general pause amid incompatible territorial and NATO demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$14,502,614Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices a 74.5% chance against a general Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, driven by entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent U.S.-led overtures. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is seeking details on Russia's short-term Victory Day truce proposal floated to President Trump during their April 30 phone call, countering with demands for a long-term pause backed by security guarantees, but Russia launched massive strikes hours later, underscoring ongoing hostilities. Prior limited truces, like the Orthodox Easter halt in April, failed to halt broader fighting, with Russian advances in Donbas and Ukrainian drone dominance signaling no mutual de-escalation. Upcoming May 9 talks offer slim prospects for a qualifying general pause amid incompatible territorial and NATO demands.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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