Polymarket traders assign a 76% implied probability to OpenAI's IPO closing market cap exceeding $800 billion—with 61% above $1 trillion—reflecting sustained AI sector momentum anchored by the firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, despite annualized revenue nearing $25 billion. A fresh Wall Street Journal report on April 28 detailed missed internal targets for weekly active users and revenue growth, amplifying concerns over $600 billion-plus compute commitments and fueling CFO Sarah Friar's warnings that a Q4 2026 listing timeline is overly aggressive amid CEO Sam Altman's push. Related markets price just 33% odds of an IPO by December 31, 2026, with a potential S-1 filing eyed for late summer as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,484,436 Vol.
$1,484,436 Vol.
31 dic 2027
$800 mil millones
76%
1 billón de dólares
61%
$1,2 billones
55%
1,4 billones de dólares
39%
$1.6 billones
24%
$1,484,436 Vol.
$1,484,436 Vol.
31 dic 2027
$800 mil millones
$94,640 Vol.
76%
1 billón de dólares
$1,041,292 Vol.
61%
$1,2 billones
$248,821 Vol.
55%
1,4 billones de dólares
$58,073 Vol.
39%
$1.6 billones
$41,610 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.Polymarket traders assign a 76% implied probability to OpenAI's IPO closing market cap exceeding $800 billion—with 61% above $1 trillion—reflecting sustained AI sector momentum anchored by the firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, despite annualized revenue nearing $25 billion. A fresh Wall Street Journal report on April 28 detailed missed internal targets for weekly active users and revenue growth, amplifying concerns over $600 billion-plus compute commitments and fueling CFO Sarah Friar's warnings that a Q4 2026 listing timeline is overly aggressive amid CEO Sam Altman's push. Related markets price just 33% odds of an IPO by December 31, 2026, with a potential S-1 filing eyed for late summer as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$1,484,436Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.Polymarket traders assign a 76% implied probability to OpenAI's IPO closing market cap exceeding $800 billion—with 61% above $1 trillion—reflecting sustained AI sector momentum anchored by the firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, despite annualized revenue nearing $25 billion. A fresh Wall Street Journal report on April 28 detailed missed internal targets for weekly active users and revenue growth, amplifying concerns over $600 billion-plus compute commitments and fueling CFO Sarah Friar's warnings that a Q4 2026 listing timeline is overly aggressive amid CEO Sam Altman's push. Related markets price just 33% odds of an IPO by December 31, 2026, with a potential S-1 filing eyed for late summer as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Volumen
$1,484,436Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 76% implied probability to OpenAI's IPO closing market cap exceeding $800 billion—with 61% above $1 trillion—reflecting sustained AI sector momentum anchored by the firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, despite annualized revenue nearing $25 billion. A fresh Wall Street Journal report on April 28 detailed missed internal targets for weekly active users and revenue growth, amplifying concerns over $600 billion-plus compute commitments and fueling CFO Sarah Friar's warnings that a Q4 2026 listing timeline is overly aggressive amid CEO Sam Altman's push. Related markets price just 33% odds of an IPO by December 31, 2026, with a potential S-1 filing eyed for late summer as the key near-term catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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