Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, with an 80.5% implied probability pairing him with federal funds rates above 2.5%, driven by the Senate Banking Committee's party-line approval of his nomination on April 29—clearing a key hurdle ahead of Powell's May 15 term end and full Senate vote. Warsh's past hawkish stance, recent testimony pledging Fed independence despite Trump's push for immediate cuts, and the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid a resilient economy underpin expectations for steady or higher rates. Alternatives like Hassett or Rieder lag as confirmation momentum builds, though Powell plans to remain a governor, potentially influencing early FOMC dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTipo de interés previsto por la Fed bajo cada presidente de la Fed
Tipo de interés previsto por la Fed bajo cada presidente de la Fed
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5% 89%
Otro 15.9%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5% 10.4%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5% 2.0%
$109,335 Vol.
$109,335 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5%
81%
Otro
16%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5%
10%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5%
21%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5%
1%
Kevin Hassett y tasa ≤ 2.5%
17%
Christopher Waller y tasa ≤ 2.5%
1%
Kevin Hassett y tasa > 2,5%
1%
Christopher Waller y tasa > 2,5%
<1%
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5% 89%
Otro 15.9%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5% 10.4%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5% 2.0%
$109,335 Vol.
$109,335 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Kevin Warsh y tasa > 2,5%
$7,424 Vol.
81%
Otro
$15,315 Vol.
16%
Rick Rieder y tasa > 2,5%
$23,046 Vol.
10%
Kevin Warsh y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$5,585 Vol.
21%
Rick Rieder y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$24,822 Vol.
1%
Kevin Hassett y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$11,815 Vol.
17%
Christopher Waller y tasa ≤ 2.5%
$6,273 Vol.
1%
Kevin Hassett y tasa > 2,5%
$7,315 Vol.
1%
Christopher Waller y tasa > 2,5%
$7,741 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, with an 80.5% implied probability pairing him with federal funds rates above 2.5%, driven by the Senate Banking Committee's party-line approval of his nomination on April 29—clearing a key hurdle ahead of Powell's May 15 term end and full Senate vote. Warsh's past hawkish stance, recent testimony pledging Fed independence despite Trump's push for immediate cuts, and the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid a resilient economy underpin expectations for steady or higher rates. Alternatives like Hassett or Rieder lag as confirmation momentum builds, though Powell plans to remain a governor, potentially influencing early FOMC dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Mercado abierto: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Volumen
$109,335Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, with an 80.5% implied probability pairing him with federal funds rates above 2.5%, driven by the Senate Banking Committee's party-line approval of his nomination on April 29—clearing a key hurdle ahead of Powell's May 15 term end and full Senate vote. Warsh's past hawkish stance, recent testimony pledging Fed independence despite Trump's push for immediate cuts, and the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid a resilient economy underpin expectations for steady or higher rates. Alternatives like Hassett or Rieder lag as confirmation momentum builds, though Powell plans to remain a governor, potentially influencing early FOMC dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Volumen
$109,335Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, with an 80.5% implied probability pairing him with federal funds rates above 2.5%, driven by the Senate Banking Committee's party-line approval of his nomination on April 29—clearing a key hurdle ahead of Powell's May 15 term end and full Senate vote. Warsh's past hawkish stance, recent testimony pledging Fed independence despite Trump's push for immediate cuts, and the current 3.5%-3.75% target range amid a resilient economy underpin expectations for steady or higher rates. Alternatives like Hassett or Rieder lag as confirmation momentum builds, though Powell plans to remain a governor, potentially influencing early FOMC dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes