The 90.5% market-implied probability for no major Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the rarity of such colossal events—occurring several times per century historically, with none since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 blast—and the lack of precursory signals like intense seismicity, rapid ground deformation, or soaring gas emissions at caldera-forming volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring shows Yellowstone Caldera at NORMAL/GREEN alert with background activity, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports confirm 47 mostly low-VEI eruptions worldwide through March 2026, none approaching VEI 4+. Restless sites like Campi Flegrei remain quiescent per INGV updates. Realistic challenges include abrupt precursor surges at undetected systems or escalation at active stratovolcanoes, though models suggest weeks-to-years warning; watch weekly GVP reports and USGS Volcano Observatory Notices.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
Sí
$83,413 Vol.
$83,413 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Sí
$83,413 Vol.
$83,413 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The 90.5% market-implied probability for no major Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the rarity of such colossal events—occurring several times per century historically, with none since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 blast—and the lack of precursory signals like intense seismicity, rapid ground deformation, or soaring gas emissions at caldera-forming volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring shows Yellowstone Caldera at NORMAL/GREEN alert with background activity, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports confirm 47 mostly low-VEI eruptions worldwide through March 2026, none approaching VEI 4+. Restless sites like Campi Flegrei remain quiescent per INGV updates. Realistic challenges include abrupt precursor surges at undetected systems or escalation at active stratovolcanoes, though models suggest weeks-to-years warning; watch weekly GVP reports and USGS Volcano Observatory Notices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$83,413Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The 90.5% market-implied probability for no major Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the rarity of such colossal events—occurring several times per century historically, with none since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 blast—and the lack of precursory signals like intense seismicity, rapid ground deformation, or soaring gas emissions at caldera-forming volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring shows Yellowstone Caldera at NORMAL/GREEN alert with background activity, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports confirm 47 mostly low-VEI eruptions worldwide through March 2026, none approaching VEI 4+. Restless sites like Campi Flegrei remain quiescent per INGV updates. Realistic challenges include abrupt precursor surges at undetected systems or escalation at active stratovolcanoes, though models suggest weeks-to-years warning; watch weekly GVP reports and USGS Volcano Observatory Notices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$83,413Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 90.5% market-implied probability for no major Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the rarity of such colossal events—occurring several times per century historically, with none since Mount Pinatubo's 1991 blast—and the lack of precursory signals like intense seismicity, rapid ground deformation, or soaring gas emissions at caldera-forming volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring shows Yellowstone Caldera at NORMAL/GREEN alert with background activity, while Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports confirm 47 mostly low-VEI eruptions worldwide through March 2026, none approaching VEI 4+. Restless sites like Campi Flegrei remain quiescent per INGV updates. Realistic challenges include abrupt precursor surges at undetected systems or escalation at active stratovolcanoes, though models suggest weeks-to-years warning; watch weekly GVP reports and USGS Volcano Observatory Notices.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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