Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 60% implied probability of "No" for Iran agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, driven by persistent deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent reports highlight Iran's rejection of US demands for a 20-year enrichment ban—offering only five years—alongside refusals to surrender its estimated 9,000+ kg enriched uranium stockpile before April 2026 deadlines, as confirmed by IAEA safeguards reports in February and March. IAEA verification remains hampered post-2025 US-Israeli strikes on facilities, with no access to key sites like Isfahan. President Trump's public urgings for a deal have yielded no official breakthrough, while similar short-term Polymarket resolutions for March and April endings favored "No," underscoring trader skepticism amid stalled diplomacy and unresolved stockpile issues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$117,837 Vol.
$117,837 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$117,837 Vol.
$117,837 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 60% implied probability of "No" for Iran agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, driven by persistent deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent reports highlight Iran's rejection of US demands for a 20-year enrichment ban—offering only five years—alongside refusals to surrender its estimated 9,000+ kg enriched uranium stockpile before April 2026 deadlines, as confirmed by IAEA safeguards reports in February and March. IAEA verification remains hampered post-2025 US-Israeli strikes on facilities, with no access to key sites like Isfahan. President Trump's public urgings for a deal have yielded no official breakthrough, while similar short-term Polymarket resolutions for March and April endings favored "No," underscoring trader skepticism amid stalled diplomacy and unresolved stockpile issues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volumen
$117,837Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 60% implied probability of "No" for Iran agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, driven by persistent deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent reports highlight Iran's rejection of US demands for a 20-year enrichment ban—offering only five years—alongside refusals to surrender its estimated 9,000+ kg enriched uranium stockpile before April 2026 deadlines, as confirmed by IAEA safeguards reports in February and March. IAEA verification remains hampered post-2025 US-Israeli strikes on facilities, with no access to key sites like Isfahan. President Trump's public urgings for a deal have yielded no official breakthrough, while similar short-term Polymarket resolutions for March and April endings favored "No," underscoring trader skepticism amid stalled diplomacy and unresolved stockpile issues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$117,837Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 60% implied probability of "No" for Iran agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, driven by persistent deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Recent reports highlight Iran's rejection of US demands for a 20-year enrichment ban—offering only five years—alongside refusals to surrender its estimated 9,000+ kg enriched uranium stockpile before April 2026 deadlines, as confirmed by IAEA safeguards reports in February and March. IAEA verification remains hampered post-2025 US-Israeli strikes on facilities, with no access to key sites like Isfahan. President Trump's public urgings for a deal have yielded no official breakthrough, while similar short-term Polymarket resolutions for March and April endings favored "No," underscoring trader skepticism amid stalled diplomacy and unresolved stockpile issues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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