Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a strong influx of Gulf moisture and an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Austin on June 15, which is suppressing maximum temperatures and anchoring market-implied odds around the 82–85°F range. Cloud cover and evaporative cooling from rainfall reduce surface heating despite seasonal solar angles typical for mid-June, while steering patterns from a passing disturbance limit afternoon mixing. Model consensus shows modest spread in precipitation timing and coverage, creating the observed distribution across 80–87°F bins and low probabilities for extremes above 90°F or below 80°F. Updated short-range model runs and radar trends over the next 12–18 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on June 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on June 15?
82-83°F 34%
80-81°F 23%
84-85°F 23%
86-87°F 6%
NUEVO
$11,621 Vol.
NUEVO
$11,621 Vol.
15 jun 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 34%
80-81°F 23%
84-85°F 23%
86-87°F 6%
NUEVO
$11,621 Vol.
NUEVO
$11,621 Vol.
15 jun 2026
73°F or below
$119 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$257 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$220 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$661 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$653 Vol.
23%
82-83°F
$719 Vol.
34%
84-85°F
$728 Vol.
23%
86-87°F
$1,390 Vol.
6%
88-89°F
$793 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$3,460 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$2,681 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a strong influx of Gulf moisture and an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Austin on June 15, which is suppressing maximum temperatures and anchoring market-implied odds around the 82–85°F range. Cloud cover and evaporative cooling from rainfall reduce surface heating despite seasonal solar angles typical for mid-June, while steering patterns from a passing disturbance limit afternoon mixing. Model consensus shows modest spread in precipitation timing and coverage, creating the observed distribution across 80–87°F bins and low probabilities for extremes above 90°F or below 80°F. Updated short-range model runs and radar trends over the next 12–18 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volumen
$11,621Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a strong influx of Gulf moisture and an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Austin on June 15, which is suppressing maximum temperatures and anchoring market-implied odds around the 82–85°F range. Cloud cover and evaporative cooling from rainfall reduce surface heating despite seasonal solar angles typical for mid-June, while steering patterns from a passing disturbance limit afternoon mixing. Model consensus shows modest spread in precipitation timing and coverage, creating the observed distribution across 80–87°F bins and low probabilities for extremes above 90°F or below 80°F. Updated short-range model runs and radar trends over the next 12–18 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$11,621Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance highlights a strong influx of Gulf moisture and an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Austin on June 15, which is suppressing maximum temperatures and anchoring market-implied odds around the 82–85°F range. Cloud cover and evaporative cooling from rainfall reduce surface heating despite seasonal solar angles typical for mid-June, while steering patterns from a passing disturbance limit afternoon mixing. Model consensus shows modest spread in precipitation timing and coverage, creating the observed distribution across 80–87°F bins and low probabilities for extremes above 90°F or below 80°F. Updated short-range model runs and radar trends over the next 12–18 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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