Trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by sustained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea without kinetic escalation. In late April 2026, China conducted naval and air combat patrols near Scarborough Shoal amid US-Philippines Balikatan exercises, including counter-landing drills, prompting mutual accusations of provocation but no armed engagement. Earlier, a March near-collision between warships and Philippine claims of Chinese cyanide sabotage at Ayungin Shoal highlighted vessel harassment by coast guard and maritime militia, yet both sides have shown restraint amid US treaty commitments deterring full conflict. Diplomatic overtures, like China's conditional openness to joint oil exploration, reinforce de-escalation expectations despite ongoing territorial disputes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$281,150 Vol.
$281,150 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$281,150 Vol.
$281,150 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by sustained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea without kinetic escalation. In late April 2026, China conducted naval and air combat patrols near Scarborough Shoal amid US-Philippines Balikatan exercises, including counter-landing drills, prompting mutual accusations of provocation but no armed engagement. Earlier, a March near-collision between warships and Philippine claims of Chinese cyanide sabotage at Ayungin Shoal highlighted vessel harassment by coast guard and maritime militia, yet both sides have shown restraint amid US treaty commitments deterring full conflict. Diplomatic overtures, like China's conditional openness to joint oil exploration, reinforce de-escalation expectations despite ongoing territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volumen
$281,150Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by sustained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea without kinetic escalation. In late April 2026, China conducted naval and air combat patrols near Scarborough Shoal amid US-Philippines Balikatan exercises, including counter-landing drills, prompting mutual accusations of provocation but no armed engagement. Earlier, a March near-collision between warships and Philippine claims of Chinese cyanide sabotage at Ayungin Shoal highlighted vessel harassment by coast guard and maritime militia, yet both sides have shown restraint amid US treaty commitments deterring full conflict. Diplomatic overtures, like China's conditional openness to joint oil exploration, reinforce de-escalation expectations despite ongoing territorial disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$281,150Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by sustained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea without kinetic escalation. In late April 2026, China conducted naval and air combat patrols near Scarborough Shoal amid US-Philippines Balikatan exercises, including counter-landing drills, prompting mutual accusations of provocation but no armed engagement. Earlier, a March near-collision between warships and Philippine claims of Chinese cyanide sabotage at Ayungin Shoal highlighted vessel harassment by coast guard and maritime militia, yet both sides have shown restraint amid US treaty commitments deterring full conflict. Diplomatic overtures, like China's conditional openness to joint oil exploration, reinforce de-escalation expectations despite ongoing territorial disputes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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