The closely matched market-implied odds underscore the fierce competition among frontier large language models from Google and Anthropic, with no single entry pulling ahead ahead of the June 13 assessment. Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.5 Flash variants sit within a few points of Claude Opus 4-6 and 4-7 models, including the specialized “thinking” versions, as traders evaluate incremental advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, multimodal integration, inference speed, and benchmark consistency. Ongoing releases and internal optimizations from both labs have kept capabilities tightly bunched, while uncertainty around final evaluation criteria and any last-minute updates continues to sustain the narrow spreads.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOtro 28%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview 28%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 27%
gemini-3.5-flash 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 jun 2026
Otro
28%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
28%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
27%
gemini-3.5-flash
27%
claude-opus-4-6
26%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
26%
Otro 28%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview 28%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 27%
gemini-3.5-flash 27%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 jun 2026
Otro
$55 Vol.
28%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$50 Vol.
28%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$0 Vol.
27%
gemini-3.5-flash
$49 Vol.
27%
claude-opus-4-6
$0 Vol.
26%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The closely matched market-implied odds underscore the fierce competition among frontier large language models from Google and Anthropic, with no single entry pulling ahead ahead of the June 13 assessment. Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.5 Flash variants sit within a few points of Claude Opus 4-6 and 4-7 models, including the specialized “thinking” versions, as traders evaluate incremental advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, multimodal integration, inference speed, and benchmark consistency. Ongoing releases and internal optimizations from both labs have kept capabilities tightly bunched, while uncertainty around final evaluation criteria and any last-minute updates continues to sustain the narrow spreads.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
Volumen
$154Fecha de finalización
13 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The closely matched market-implied odds underscore the fierce competition among frontier large language models from Google and Anthropic, with no single entry pulling ahead ahead of the June 13 assessment. Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.5 Flash variants sit within a few points of Claude Opus 4-6 and 4-7 models, including the specialized “thinking” versions, as traders evaluate incremental advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, multimodal integration, inference speed, and benchmark consistency. Ongoing releases and internal optimizations from both labs have kept capabilities tightly bunched, while uncertainty around final evaluation criteria and any last-minute updates continues to sustain the narrow spreads.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$154Fecha de finalización
13 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds underscore the fierce competition among frontier large language models from Google and Anthropic, with no single entry pulling ahead ahead of the June 13 assessment. Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview and 3.5 Flash variants sit within a few points of Claude Opus 4-6 and 4-7 models, including the specialized “thinking” versions, as traders evaluate incremental advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, multimodal integration, inference speed, and benchmark consistency. Ongoing releases and internal optimizations from both labs have kept capabilities tightly bunched, while uncertainty around final evaluation criteria and any last-minute updates continues to sustain the narrow spreads.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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