Trader consensus on the best AI model by June 6 heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 92.5% implied probability, driven by its recent official releases demonstrating superior performance in multi-step reasoning and style-agnostic benchmarks compared to competitors. This positioning reflects Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model architecture, outpacing Gemini variants and other Claude iterations in third-party evaluations of capability depth. The market-implied odds align with historical patterns where thinking-enabled models maintain leads absent major new announcements. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Gemini update, revised evaluation criteria, or undisclosed internal shifts at competing labs that could alter demonstrated results before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 92%
Other 6%
claude-opus-4-6 1.4%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
92%
Other
6%
claude-opus-4-6
1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
<1%
gemini-3.5-flash
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 92%
Other 6%
claude-opus-4-6 1.4%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$1,268 Vol.
92%
Other
$927 Vol.
6%
claude-opus-4-6
$872 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.5-flash
$920 Vol.
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on the best AI model by June 6 heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 92.5% implied probability, driven by its recent official releases demonstrating superior performance in multi-step reasoning and style-agnostic benchmarks compared to competitors. This positioning reflects Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model architecture, outpacing Gemini variants and other Claude iterations in third-party evaluations of capability depth. The market-implied odds align with historical patterns where thinking-enabled models maintain leads absent major new announcements. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Gemini update, revised evaluation criteria, or undisclosed internal shifts at competing labs that could alter demonstrated results before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 1, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volumen
$6,311Fecha de finalización
6 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on the best AI model by June 6 heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 92.5% implied probability, driven by its recent official releases demonstrating superior performance in multi-step reasoning and style-agnostic benchmarks compared to competitors. This positioning reflects Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model architecture, outpacing Gemini variants and other Claude iterations in third-party evaluations of capability depth. The market-implied odds align with historical patterns where thinking-enabled models maintain leads absent major new announcements. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Gemini update, revised evaluation criteria, or undisclosed internal shifts at competing labs that could alter demonstrated results before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$6,311Fecha de finalización
6 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the best AI model by June 6 heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking at a 92.5% implied probability, driven by its recent official releases demonstrating superior performance in multi-step reasoning and style-agnostic benchmarks compared to competitors. This positioning reflects Anthropic's iterative improvements in large language model architecture, outpacing Gemini variants and other Claude iterations in third-party evaluations of capability depth. The market-implied odds align with historical patterns where thinking-enabled models maintain leads absent major new announcements. Realistic challenges include an unexpected Gemini update, revised evaluation criteria, or undisclosed internal shifts at competing labs that could alter demonstrated results before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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