Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants currently lead most public leaderboards in June 2026, including composite quality indexes and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company the strongest position heading into the June 30 cutoff. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro and related "Thinking" models sit immediately behind on Elo ratings and specialized tests like GPQA or math tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strength in multimodal and agentic categories. Performance across Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI has converged within a narrow band, shifting focus to incremental updates, cost efficiency, and domain-specific results rather than large capability gaps. No major model releases are confirmed before the deadline, though minor optimizations or benchmark refreshes could still influence final standings. Trader sentiment reflects these verified standings from sources like LMSYS Arena and LiveBench, with limited time remaining for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,637,948 Vol.
30 jun 2026
OpenAI
5%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
<1%
$1,637,948 Vol.
OpenAI
$439,790 Vol.
5%
xAI
$574,921 Vol.
1%
Meta
$21,122 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$281,905 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$15,988 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$13,633 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$6,936 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$7,222 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$14,088 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$4,372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants currently lead most public leaderboards in June 2026, including composite quality indexes and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company the strongest position heading into the June 30 cutoff. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro and related "Thinking" models sit immediately behind on Elo ratings and specialized tests like GPQA or math tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strength in multimodal and agentic categories. Performance across Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI has converged within a narrow band, shifting focus to incremental updates, cost efficiency, and domain-specific results rather than large capability gaps. No major model releases are confirmed before the deadline, though minor optimizations or benchmark refreshes could still influence final standings. Trader sentiment reflects these verified standings from sources like LMSYS Arena and LiveBench, with limited time remaining for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$1,637,948Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants currently lead most public leaderboards in June 2026, including composite quality indexes and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company the strongest position heading into the June 30 cutoff. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro and related "Thinking" models sit immediately behind on Elo ratings and specialized tests like GPQA or math tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strength in multimodal and agentic categories. Performance across Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI has converged within a narrow band, shifting focus to incremental updates, cost efficiency, and domain-specific results rather than large capability gaps. No major model releases are confirmed before the deadline, though minor optimizations or benchmark refreshes could still influence final standings. Trader sentiment reflects these verified standings from sources like LMSYS Arena and LiveBench, with limited time remaining for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$1,637,948Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants currently lead most public leaderboards in June 2026, including composite quality indexes and reasoning benchmarks, giving the company the strongest position heading into the June 30 cutoff. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Pro and related "Thinking" models sit immediately behind on Elo ratings and specialized tests like GPQA or math tasks, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview shows strength in multimodal and agentic categories. Performance across Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and xAI has converged within a narrow band, shifting focus to incremental updates, cost efficiency, and domain-specific results rather than large capability gaps. No major model releases are confirmed before the deadline, though minor optimizations or benchmark refreshes could still influence final standings. Trader sentiment reflects these verified standings from sources like LMSYS Arena and LiveBench, with limited time remaining for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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