Polymarket traders price a 35.9% implied probability on April 2026 CPI annual inflation at exactly 3.7%, narrowly ahead of 3.8% at 26.9% and 3.6% at 19.0%, reflecting tight competition amid hotter-than-expected March data showing 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024 and up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by a 0.9% monthly surge led by energy costs like gasoline. Core CPI edged to 2.6% annually, underscoring shelter persistence and base effects as key swing factors, with recent Cleveland Fed nowcasts pointing to modest April month-over-month gains around 0.45%. Consensus tilts higher than prior months, but weekly jobless claims and oil trends could tip outcomes before the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$219,371 Vol.
$219,371 Vol.
12 may 2026
≤3,1%
1%
3,2%
<1%
3,3%
1%
3,4%
1%
3,5%
11%
3,6%
19%
3,7%
36%
3,8%
27%
3,9%
6%
4,0 %
2%
≥4,1%
1%
$219,371 Vol.
$219,371 Vol.
12 may 2026
≤3,1%
$10,534 Vol.
1%
3,2%
$6,378 Vol.
<1%
3,3%
$6,647 Vol.
1%
3,4%
$7,683 Vol.
1%
3,5%
$9,260 Vol.
11%
3,6%
$20,030 Vol.
19%
3,7%
$53,884 Vol.
36%
3,8%
$52,172 Vol.
27%
3,9%
$27,714 Vol.
6%
4,0 %
$12,431 Vol.
2%
≥4,1%
$12,639 Vol.
1%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders price a 35.9% implied probability on April 2026 CPI annual inflation at exactly 3.7%, narrowly ahead of 3.8% at 26.9% and 3.6% at 19.0%, reflecting tight competition amid hotter-than-expected March data showing 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024 and up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by a 0.9% monthly surge led by energy costs like gasoline. Core CPI edged to 2.6% annually, underscoring shelter persistence and base effects as key swing factors, with recent Cleveland Fed nowcasts pointing to modest April month-over-month gains around 0.45%. Consensus tilts higher than prior months, but weekly jobless claims and oil trends could tip outcomes before the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volumen
$219,371Fecha de finalización
12 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders price a 35.9% implied probability on April 2026 CPI annual inflation at exactly 3.7%, narrowly ahead of 3.8% at 26.9% and 3.6% at 19.0%, reflecting tight competition amid hotter-than-expected March data showing 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024 and up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by a 0.9% monthly surge led by energy costs like gasoline. Core CPI edged to 2.6% annually, underscoring shelter persistence and base effects as key swing factors, with recent Cleveland Fed nowcasts pointing to modest April month-over-month gains around 0.45%. Consensus tilts higher than prior months, but weekly jobless claims and oil trends could tip outcomes before the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$219,371Fecha de finalización
12 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 35.9% implied probability on April 2026 CPI annual inflation at exactly 3.7%, narrowly ahead of 3.8% at 26.9% and 3.6% at 19.0%, reflecting tight competition amid hotter-than-expected March data showing 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024 and up sharply from February's 2.4%—fueled by a 0.9% monthly surge led by energy costs like gasoline. Core CPI edged to 2.6% annually, underscoring shelter persistence and base effects as key swing factors, with recent Cleveland Fed nowcasts pointing to modest April month-over-month gains around 0.45%. Consensus tilts higher than prior months, but weekly jobless claims and oil trends could tip outcomes before the May 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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