Anthropic's June 9 launch of Claude Fable 5, the first generally available Mythos-class model, has driven recent sentiment by delivering state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks while routing sensitive queries to the Opus 4.8 fallback. Trader consensus heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking variants at 81.5% implied probability, likely reflecting the model's established stability, consistent performance without safety classifiers, and proven reliability ahead of the June 20 resolution. Claude Fable 5 sits at 15% as its safeguards and limited real-world deployment since launch introduce uncertainty about sustained leadership, while "Other" and the base claude-opus-4-6 remain marginal. Key near-term factors include any rapid benchmark updates or capability demonstrations that could shift the closely watched frontier ranking before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 86%
claude-fable-5 12%
Other 3.6%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
86%
claude-fable-5
12%
Other
4%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 86%
claude-fable-5 12%
Other 3.6%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 jun 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$2,102 Vol.
86%
claude-fable-5
$2,170 Vol.
12%
Other
$654 Vol.
4%
claude-opus-4-6
$674 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's June 9 launch of Claude Fable 5, the first generally available Mythos-class model, has driven recent sentiment by delivering state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks while routing sensitive queries to the Opus 4.8 fallback. Trader consensus heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking variants at 81.5% implied probability, likely reflecting the model's established stability, consistent performance without safety classifiers, and proven reliability ahead of the June 20 resolution. Claude Fable 5 sits at 15% as its safeguards and limited real-world deployment since launch introduce uncertainty about sustained leadership, while "Other" and the base claude-opus-4-6 remain marginal. Key near-term factors include any rapid benchmark updates or capability demonstrations that could shift the closely watched frontier ranking before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$5,066Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's June 9 launch of Claude Fable 5, the first generally available Mythos-class model, has driven recent sentiment by delivering state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks while routing sensitive queries to the Opus 4.8 fallback. Trader consensus heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking variants at 81.5% implied probability, likely reflecting the model's established stability, consistent performance without safety classifiers, and proven reliability ahead of the June 20 resolution. Claude Fable 5 sits at 15% as its safeguards and limited real-world deployment since launch introduce uncertainty about sustained leadership, while "Other" and the base claude-opus-4-6 remain marginal. Key near-term factors include any rapid benchmark updates or capability demonstrations that could shift the closely watched frontier ranking before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$5,066Fecha de finalización
20 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's June 9 launch of Claude Fable 5, the first generally available Mythos-class model, has driven recent sentiment by delivering state-of-the-art scores on benchmarks for coding, long-context reasoning, and agentic tasks while routing sensitive queries to the Opus 4.8 fallback. Trader consensus heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking variants at 81.5% implied probability, likely reflecting the model's established stability, consistent performance without safety classifiers, and proven reliability ahead of the June 20 resolution. Claude Fable 5 sits at 15% as its safeguards and limited real-world deployment since launch introduce uncertainty about sustained leadership, while "Other" and the base claude-opus-4-6 remain marginal. Key near-term factors include any rapid benchmark updates or capability demonstrations that could shift the closely watched frontier ranking before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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