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Ambassador predictions & odds

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Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

25%

$377 Vol.

$37.9K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

48%

$28.5K Vol.

$9.9K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

30%

$14.7K Vol.

$12.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

44%

Tulsi Gabbard

$10.4K Vol.

$22.6K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

22%

3

$2.7K Vol.

$18.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Major US official out by May 31?

Major US official out by May 31?

63%

$1.7K Vol.

$22.3K Liq.

1

Ends in 29 days

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

69%

Kash Patel

$1M Vol.

$239K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration by June 30?

Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration by June 30?

13%

$986 Vol.

$10.6K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

16%

$7.7K Vol.

$10.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

66%

Steve Witkoff

$1M Vol.

$126K Liq.

68

Ends in about 2 months

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?

42%

June 30

$195 Vol.

$113K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

52%

$13.6K Vol.

$36.0K Liq.

Ends in 29 days

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

84%

No Meeting before May 11

$1M Vol.

$68.0K today

$261K Liq.

22

Ends in 8 days

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

4%

May 31

$25.7K Vol.

$16.5K Liq.

8

Ends in 29 days

Who will meet with Iran by May 31?

Who will meet with Iran by May 31?

39%

Steve Witkoff

$3.8K Vol.

$223K Liq.

Ends in 29 days

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

79%

December 31, 2026

$3M Vol.

$5.8K Liq.

122

Ends in about 2 months

Zelenskyy # posts May 5 - May 12, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts May 5 - May 12, 2026?

27%

40-59

$36 Vol.

$2.1K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

Zelenskyy # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

63%

60-79

$8.2K Vol.

$4.8K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Zelenskyy # posts May 1 - May 8, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts May 1 - May 8, 2026?

40%

60-79

$2.5K Vol.

$5.4K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

10%

$48.0K Vol.

$12.5K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 112 active markets for Ambassador that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $6.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “MegaETH airdrop by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “MegaETH airdrop by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 77% chance to December 31, 2026. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Ambassador predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.