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Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

icon for World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Sports·FIFA World Cup

World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

$402,090 Vol.

Jun 28, 2026
Polymarket

$402,090 Vol.

Polymarket

Spain

$19,579 Vol.

98%

England

$8,601 Vol.

97%

France

$34,716 Vol.

97%

Brazil

$9,652 Vol.

97%

Portugal

$9,989 Vol.

96%

Germany

$8,535 Vol.

96%

Belgium

$5,911 Vol.

95%

Argentina

$5,207 Vol.

95%

Switzerland

$6,004 Vol.

93%

Mexico

$5,305 Vol.

91%

Colombia

$6,982 Vol.

88%

Ecuador

$1,457 Vol.

87%

Uruguay

$1,412 Vol.

86%

Norway

$45,836 Vol.

86%

Morocco

$2,550 Vol.

85%

Canada

$1,560 Vol.

85%

USA

$24,889 Vol.

84%

Netherlands

$5,308 Vol.

84%

Austria

$15,991 Vol.

81%

Croatia

$2,821 Vol.

81%

Turkiye

$9,212 Vol.

79%

Japan

$2,811 Vol.

79%

Ivory Coast

$2,187 Vol.

77%

Egypt

$893 Vol.

73%

Scotland

$8,379 Vol.

72%

Czechia

$1,139 Vol.

71%

Senegal

$7,206 Vol.

70%

South Korea

$841 Vol.

69%

Algeria

$1,551 Vol.

69%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

$2,971 Vol.

66%

Paraguay

$478 Vol.

65%

Sweden

$3,529 Vol.

64%

Iran

$3,098 Vol.

63%

Ghana

$3,429 Vol.

52%

Australia

$5,528 Vol.

49%

DR Congo

$5,830 Vol.

44%

South Africa

$3,743 Vol.

39%

Tunisia

$3,045 Vol.

39%

Saudi Arabia

$23,489 Vol.

36%

Uzbekistan

$3,266 Vol.

36%

New Zealand

$9,464 Vol.

32%

Cape Verde

$3,596 Vol.

32%

Panama

$3,975 Vol.

29%

Qatar

$18,869 Vol.

26%

Jordan

$20,892 Vol.

18%

Haiti

$7,609 Vol.

12%

Iraq

$20,039 Vol.

12%

Curacao

$2,823 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The expanded 2026 World Cup format with 12 groups of four and 32 teams advancing—top two plus the eight best third-placed sides—shapes advancement odds more than in prior editions by giving underdogs realistic paths via goal differential or results against stronger opponents. Groups were finalized after the December 2025 draw and recent European playoffs, placing host nations like the United States and Mexico in favorable positions with home-soil advantages and projected high qualification rates around 75-80%. Pre-tournament analyses highlight squad depth, recent international form, and key matchups as primary drivers, with rule changes aimed at faster play potentially influencing late-group scenarios. Traders monitor injury updates and starting XI confirmations as the June 11 kickoff nears.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$402,090
End Date
Jun 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The expanded 2026 World Cup format with 12 groups of four and 32 teams advancing—top two plus the eight best third-placed sides—shapes advancement odds more than in prior editions by giving underdogs realistic paths via goal differential or results against stronger opponents. Groups were finalized after the December 2025 draw and recent European playoffs, placing host nations like the United States and Mexico in favorable positions with home-soil advantages and projected high qualification rates around 75-80%. Pre-tournament analyses highlight squad depth, recent international form, and key matchups as primary drivers, with rule changes aimed at faster play potentially influencing late-group scenarios. Traders monitor injury updates and starting XI confirmations as the June 11 kickoff nears.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$402,090
End Date
Jun 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 48+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spain" at 98%, followed by "England" at 97%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages" has generated $402.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages," browse the 48+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages" is "Spain" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "England" at 97%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.